- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 52% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 58% of traders remain bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Euro Zone Final Final CPI
Even though released information on the US Retail Sales did not justify experts' forecasts, the currency pair failed to break above resistance, which located in the 19.85-95 area. Due to pressure of various technical indicators from both directions, the pair is not expected to make any significant moves today. But in longer perspective, the Euro is likely to tend to reach the updated weekly R1 at 1.2039.
The EUR/USD revealed temporary appreciation amid weaker-than-expected reports on retail sales in the US. The European single currency added against the Greenback 0.14% or 16 base points to enter the 1.1980 area, but continued a side move at a slightly weaker level.
The Commerce Department reported that the US retail sales dropped unexpectedly 0.2% over the month of August, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase. The negative changes were mainly due to depressed purchases of motor vehicles likely after Hurricane Harvey, which could cause a further moderation in consumer spending in the Q3. However, a rise in purchases at restaurants and furniture outlets suggested the demand is set to be supported by a healthy labour market.
Another empty Monday
Today is expected to pass relatively quietly for the given currency pair. The only notable event will happen at 9:00 GMT when the Eurostat will announce the final inflation numbers for the Euro Zone countries.
EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938
Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area. At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends either neutral or ordinary buy signal.
This fact as well as the traditional Monday's inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today. However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039.
On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, the currency pair is continuing to gradually head to the north after making a rebound from the monthly PP at 1.1881. In general, the pair is expected to continue to climb to the top. However, in shorter perspective the further surge might be hindered due to existence of a junior descending channel. This pattern, in turn, might force the rate to slip to the bottom edge of a new dominant channel up and only then make a full-fledged rebound.
Daily Chart
Traders still bearish on the pair
The SWFX market sentiment remained unchanged since yesterday and now is 57% bearish. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows. Euro is 59% bearish, while for the Dollar 58% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 62% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 58% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility