- SWFX traders are 51% bearish
- 61% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,241.60
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims; US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The decline of the yellow metal has extended, as the bullion has reached levels below the 1,240 mark. Most clues indicate that the fall of the yellow metal will continue in the near future, as on various timeframes there can be seen reasons for such development of events.
Consumer prices in the United States were flat, while retail sales dropped for the second consecutive month in June. The Labour Department reported on Friday that its CPI registered an unchanged reading in the observed month, missing market expectations for a 0.1% rise, as the cost of mobile services and gasoline declining. On a yearly basis, the index surged 1.6% in June, continuing to ease from February's 2.7%, when it showed the strongest gain in five years.
Weekly US data
In regards to what can affect the price of the yellow metal, the US unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are the only data sets worth mentioning. Both of the data sets will be published at 12:30 GMT. However, it could be more productive for any analyst or trader to look at the ECB press conference, which will begin at the same time.
XAU/USD moves in accordance with pattern
The bullion's price continues to move in accordance with the discovered patterns. On Thursday morning the commodity price decline to trade below the resistance of the 55-hour SMA, which was located at the 1,240 mark. The metal was making attempts to regain lost ground during the morning hours of the session. However, in accordance with the ascending channel pattern, in which the metal trades, the bullion is set to decline down to the support line of the mentioned pattern. Before that occurs the commodity price might face the support of the 100-hour SMA, which on Thursday was located near the 1,235 mark. Meanwhile, down to the just mentioned simple moving average there are no other support levels, which creates a free range of almost 500 base points.
Hourly Chart
On the daily timeframe it can be observed that the 55 and 100-day SMAs above 1,245 mark might have been the ones, who stopped the surge of the metal. Meanwhile, on the daily chart the weekly pivot points are added for additional analysis. Due to that it is possible to see that the weekly R2 is providing support to the metal.Daily Chart
SWFX traders have shifted
Traders of Dukascopy have are no longer neutral bearish, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 61% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain with a bullish outlook, as open positions are 72.14% long on Thursday. In the meantime, SAXO bank sentiment is 60.10% bullish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,350 in October. Generally, 39% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days.