- SWFX traders are 52% bullish
- 62% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,288.65
- Upcoming Events: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Claims; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
For the third consecutive trading session the metal traded near the 1,225 mark on Thursday morning. However, the bullion showed signs of increased volatility and a direction to the upside, as a possible short term ascending channel has been mapped on the hourly chart.
New orders for US-made goods declined more than estimated for the second consecutive month in May, a worrisome sign for the manufacturing industry. The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the country's factory orders dropped 0.8% month-over-month in May, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall registered in April. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated new orders to show a smaller decline of 0.5%. On a yearly basis, factory orders were up 4.8%, suggesting that US manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.
Various US data sets
On Thursday there are three data sets scheduled to be released at various times, which should be looked at by market participants. The first to be published data set is the most important. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be out at 12:15 GMT. The release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research team on the live webinar platform of the bank. Fifteen minutes afterwards, at 12:30 GMT, the weekly US Unemployment Claims will be published. Later on in the day, at 14:00 GMT, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. However, both of these releases in the past have not shown enough strength to cause volatility in the markets.
XAU/USD reveals short term trend
On Thursday morning the yellow metal still traded near the 1,225 mark. However, the main difference, compared to the Wednesday's trading session was that the commodity price was being supported by the 55-hour SMA, which was located just below the 1,225 level. Meanwhile, the 100-hour SMA was moving in on the commodity price from the just above the 1,231 level. Although, a new discovery was made on Thursday morning. The possible borders of a short term ascending channel have been drawn. If the yellow metal continues to trade in the drawn borders, the commodity price will not reach above the 1,230 mark. The hypothesis might become stronger, as the 100 and 200-hour SMAs move downwards and the 55-hour moving average would decline down to the 1,220 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart there is additional information, in regards to the support provided to the yellow metal. The lower Bollinger band of the daily timeframe is located at the 1,220 mark. In addition, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1,219.36 level. Meanwhile, by adding additional pivot points, one can observe that the weekly second support level is located at the 1,223.67 mark. The weekly pivot point on Thursday finally revealed that it has some strength in it, as the metal shortly found support in the level of significance.Daily Chart
SWFX market is almost neutral
Traders of Dukascopy are neutral bullish, as 52% of open positions are long on Thursday, which is the same proportion as on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 62% of trader set up orders are to buy the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders have not changed their bullish outlook, as open positions are 73.72% long on Thursday, compared to 72.67% on Wednesday. In the meantime, SAXO bank sentiment is 68.99% bullish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being at 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in October. Generally, 57% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Meanwhile, most people see the bullion in the 1,350-1400 range, as 27% see the metal in that range.