Kiwi drops as expected

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
"The countdown is now on to Yellen's speech, which in all likelihood will determine whether the market has been correct in pushing odds of a March hike to close to 100 percent, therefore boosting the USD."  
– Philip Borkin, ANZ Bank New Zealand (based on New Zealand Herald)


Pair's Outlook 
By the middle of Friday's trading the Kiwi dropped against the US Dollar down to the weekly S3, which is located at 0.7028. This move was expected and forecasted on Thursday. The currency exchange rate reached below the weekly S3, and it might seem that the rate will continue lower. However, after such a sharp drop a period of consolidation most often occurs. Moreover, during the second part of the day's trading session US monetary policy makers are set to give speeches regarding monetary policy. Due to these factors combined, the markets need to look at the fundamentals. 

Traders' Sentiment 
Traders remain bearish on the Kiwi, as 57% of open positions are short. However, 71% of SWFX trader set up orders are set to buy the New Zealand Dollar.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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