Australian company profit slump hit to GDP outlook offset by rising wages

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"We await the final partial data (due tomorrow) which is expected to show a big boost from net exports, as well as a modest rise in public demand".-  George Tharenou, Scott Haslem and Jin Xu, UBS Australia

 The Bureau of Statistics business indicators data for the March quarter, showed a mixed outcome. The bad news was an unexpected slump in gross operating profits at Australian firms. After seasonal adjustments, profits dropped by 4.7% to $59.295 billion between January to March compared to the prior quarter, a figure that was well below expectations for an increase of 0.2%. The slump left gross operating profits down 8.4% on the same quarter a year earlier. It was the largest year-on-year decline registered since 2012, and was also the lowest quarterly figure since Q1 of 2010. Most of the slump in profits was due to three industries - mining, manufacturing and financial/insurance services. Mining profits slumped 9.6%, manufacturing 14.5%, and financial and insurance services saw gross operating profits collapse by 69.4%. This slide in corporate fortunes was partly offset by a surprise rise in wages and salaries, which rose 0.6% in the March quarter. 


The other boost to Wednesday's GDP number was an unexpected 0.4% rise in inventories, which were expected to stay flat. While this should add around a percentage point to GDP in the first quarter, this boost is likely to be unwound in coming quarters as these inventories are sold down. Overall, most economists are leaving their GDP forecasts unchanged for now.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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