USD/JPY prolongs its retreat

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"The distribution between the buy and sell orders have widened substantially and they are at 77% and 23% respectively. That could lead to a rebound in price; although, that could be limited by the closest resistance that is located at 120.37 (weekly PP). At the same time, if the selling pressure continue to increase a decline could be limited by the closest support that is placed at 116.75 and is represented by the monthly PP."

© Dukascopy Bank SA
The pair continues its decline, making it two straight days and at the beginning of today the pair is also trading lower. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed US employers posted 4.834 million job openings in October, slightly more than 4.7 million in the preceding month. The number of job openings in the private sector was little changed, while the figure dropped for government positions in the month under review. The monthly JOLTS is preferred by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen as a more accurate picture of economic conditions than the weekly or monthly jobs numbers. Last week data showed US companies added 321,000 non-farm payrolls in November, overshooting expectations for a 230,000 gain. This is the biggest monthly increase since January 2012.

US wholesale inventories rose more than expected in October, which is likely to result in a boost to the fourth quarter GDP numbers. The Commerce Department reported wholesale stocks increased 0.4%, while September's wholesale inventories were revised up to show a 0.4% rise.

Meanwhile, Japan's economy contracted more than previously estimated, giving the government more reasons to proceed with the plan to delay the next sales tax hike and hold an early election. The nation's economy shrank 1.9% in annual terms in the third quarter, according to revised data, which underlined that the hit from April's sales tax increase turned out to be more devastating than expected. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the Japanese economy contracted 0.5% in the July-September period, compared with a preliminary estimate of a 0.4% slowdown. The world's third-largest economy technically remains in recession, marked by two quarters in a row of GDP contraction.







US crude oil inventories to be released

US crude oil inventories are released today, it is very important to pay attention to what is going on in US oil market, since crude has been one of the key drivers in the global markets. Moreover, in the night to Thursday Japan's core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity data will be released.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

USD/JPY continues to reach new highs

At the first half of the year USD/JPY was trading almost completely flat, as it traded around the 102 level. However, at the second part of August the Greenback started to outperform the Japanese peer rather heavily. Currently, the pair has breached the 120 mark and for the time being it is supported by the support line and monthly R1 near the 121 mark, if this level holds then we might see the pair climbing even higher. Nonetheless, in case these levels do not hold the selling pressure then the pair is likely to slide below the psychological level of 120.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

USD/JPY has rebounded from the steep drop yesterday, when the weekly S1 at 119.05 was breached. Nonetheless, even though this level was broken yesterday it still remains a support level as of today. Moreover, the technical studies have become more bullish compared to day earlier, as the daily technical indicators are giving 'buy' signals, after being neutral yesterday.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

USD/JPY spreads (avg, pip) and volatility

© Dukascopy Bank SA








SWFX traders are neutral

The sentiment of the SWFX market participants remains neutral with respect to USD/JPY, as of today 51% of the market participants are long. Concerning the orders placed 100 pips from the spot, there are now significantly more commands to buy, namely 77%.. It implies that, if USD/JPY rebounds, in the near-term it may be stopped by recent high, which simultaneously is this year's high and possibly it could push the pair lower. However, if the pair continue to retreat, most likely it will be stopped by the weekly S1 and the major level at 119.

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