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Last week almost 93% of Dukascopy community members were expecting the USD/JPY to perform a solid rally over the week, however, confident comments from the Bank of Japan and dovish Fed pushed the pair back to 101.32. This level represents a strong support for bears, and without any strong bearish bias the pair will not be able to move any lower and head towards 100-mark.
This time, traders are still bullish on the pair, though, the percentage of those, who expect an appreciation, declined to 72%. Nonetheless, the price is forecasted to end this week at 102.05, just slightly above the weekly pivot. At the same time, almost 75% of all opened positions are long. On the other hand, the percentage of buy orders plummeted from 73% down to 63%. Moreover, technical indicators are mixed, as technicals on a weekly chart are pointing to the south, while monthly indicators are supporting greenback's appreciation versus the Yen.
Traders are also not univocal in their forecasts, as Juandata suggested "In hourly chart USD/JPY is drawing higher highs and higher lows on Stochastic. MACD also support an upside movement, so if people react positive on Chinese GDP, the pair could aim towards 102.80, but I will not trigger a buy position until Stochastic is above 50 and until USD and Chinese data are released." On the contrary, geulax4 sees a strong downside trend.
Kuroda's and Yellen's speeches, as well as consumer confidence from Japan and manufacturing from the world's largest economy will be the main catalysts for the pair. The outlook is unclear, however, long traders should focus on 102.03, while short traders will have to try to reach a recent low and a 200-day SMA at 101.30.
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