GBP/USD recovery encounters resistance

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The decline of the Pound against the US Dollar has found support in the 1.2425/1.2435 range. However, by mid-Monday, the rate had reached the resistance of the 50-hour simple moving average and the 1.2500 mark. It was observed that the broader decline was resuming.

Economic Calendar



On Wednesday, the UK Consumer Price Index is expected to impact the value of the Pound. A sudden surge of consumer prices in the UK could force the Bank of England to hike interest rates and strengthen the Pound. The Bank of England does its own policy and has reacted to world events better than the US Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, a minor move could occur due to the weekly Unemployment Claims release at 12:30 GMT. More employed people indicate at more consumer demand that also pushes prices higher.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

A decline of the GBP/USD pair is set to look for support in the 1.2450 level and the 1.2425/1.2435 range. Further below, note the 1.2400 level and the combination of the weekly S1 at 1.2347 and 1.2350 level.

However, a surge of the Pound would have to break the 50-hour SMA and the 1.2500 mark. Higher above, note the cluster of levels from 1.2519 up to 1.2600. In this range there are a historical low level, two simple moving averages, and a prior low and high level range.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

On the daily candle chart, the GBP/USD is trading between the support of the 1.2380/1.2430 range and resistance of the 1.2500/1.2535 zone and the 200-day simple moving average.

A descent of the 200-day SMA could push the rate into a decline. If the pair declines, support could be looked for in the 1.2300 and 1.2200 levels.

Daily chart


Traders remain long

On Monday, traders were still 62% bullish, as that proportion of all open position volume on Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were 50% to buy and to sell.

After the US inflation week, 62% of traders had went long and orders were 52% short. In general, more traders expect the pair to recover. In addition, to the one's sitting on losses since Monday.

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