USD/JPY becomes highly volatilte

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The USD/JPY continued to trade and look for support in the 146.25/146.55 range from mid-Friday up to mid-Tuesday. On Tuesday, the rate was caught up by the 50-hour simple moving average, which was the needed catalyst for a surge. The follow up surge reached above the 147.00 mark and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 147.17.

At 14:00 GMT, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results were published. It revealed that in the United States instead of 9.49 million job openings there are only reportedly 8.83 million jobs available.

Due to the news, the US Dollar plummeted in value. Over the span of five minutes the Dollar index lost 0.38% or almost 40 base points. The decline was attributed to the fact that weak US economic data indicates that the US Federal Reserve would not need to tighten monetary policy as much as previously expected.

On the USD/JPY charts it resulted in a retreat to support levels near 145.85.

Economic Calendar



On Wednesday, the US ADP Non-farm Employment Change number could impact the US Dollar's value at 12:15 GMT. However, more impact might be caused by the US Preliminary GDP publication at 12:30 GMT.

On Thursday, the US Core PCE Price Index should cause a USD move. Although, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has already commented on the data during the Jackson Hole symposium. Due to this reason there might be no currency adjustment.

On Friday, the US monthly employment data will be released at 12:30 GMT. The release will consist of the Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, also on Friday, note the US Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index release at 14:00 GMT.

Hourly Chart
A decline below the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the weekly simple pivot point could result in the pair looking for support either in the 145.50 level or the 145.00 mark. The 145.00 is strengthened by the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 145.07.

However, a recovery of the USD would have to reach above the 146.25/146.55 range, before the USD/JPY returns to the 147.00 level and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 147.17.

USD/JPY daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, on August 10, the rate reached the 145.00/146.00 range, which marks a zone that acted as resistance and support in the second part of 2022. At the end of June and early July of 2023 this range caused the July decline.

Recently, the resistance zone was broken, and for almost a week now it has acted as support.

Daily chart



Traders are short

On Monday, traders were bearish on USD/JPY, as 69% of open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were short.

In the meantime, trader pending orders in the 100-point range around the current exchange rate are 51% to buy.

On Tuesday, traders were 70% short and orders were 67% to sell.

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