- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 52% of all cases
- CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT
On Tuesday, Gold prices continued to trade near 1,200.00. Most likely the metal's price remains fixed, as the markets expected the announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate on Wednesday.
Oil price have increased after US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle gained 21 pips, or 0.30% right after the data release. The crude oil price kept increasing in next hours after the release to continue trading at 71.03 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 2.1M, compare to forecasted negative 2.7M.
The United States crude oil price rose to a two-month high after the data release on Wednesday. The data release was bullish according to the market reaction putting the crude oil price above 70 cents per barrel.
US Federal Reserve in focus on Wednesday
CB Consumer Confidence data release will most likely cause a small reaction in the financial markets, on Tuesday. The data release is set to occur at 14:00 GMT, and it will be covered by the Dukascopy Analytics team.Although, the most important day of the week for fundamentals will be Wednesday. The weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 14:30 GMT. The cover webinar for the release, will start as usual at 14:20 GMT.
Meanwhile, the most important data release will be the release of the US Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike their interest rate to 2.25% from 2.00% at 18:00 GMT. The event will be also covered by Dukascopy Analytics live.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will move downwards to the monthly pivot point at the 1,195.60 mark due to the resistance of the simple moving averages. The rate will trade at the 1,196.00 level during Tuesday's trading session.
On the other hand, the rate might break the resistance of the simple moving averages and the lower boundary of the medium ascending line to trade in the previously drawn pattern at the 1,204.00 level.
Hourly Chart
The yellow metal on Friday finally reached the resistance levels near the 1,213.00 level on the daily chart. Namely, the combined resistance of a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level and the 55-day simple moving average were reached.
The levels were expected to get passed. However, they beat the rate down, forcing the commodity into breaking the dominant ascending pattern.
Moreover, it could be observed on the daily chart that the previous support line of the ascending pattern had begun to provide resistance to the commodity price, keeping it lower.
Daily Chart
Long position proportion increases
Swiss traders have increased their long sentiment, as 74% of trader open positions were long on Monday. Previously, 71% of traders were long.
Meanwhile, most trader set up pending orders are set to buy the metal by closing short positions or opening additional long positions. Namely, 60% of all trader set up orders are set to buy the metal under various conditions.
The expectations of a surge observable on the sentiment of the SWFX contradicts the fact that a rate hike in the US is expected to occur on Wednesday.
Namely, if the US hikes their rate, the US Dollar will increase in value. That would beat gold prices downwards immediately upon the hike.