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AUD/CAD will "edge" higher towards 2014

Forecasting currency price movements 2 months out is always challenging - I have decided to apply some techniques to narrow the range of the currency movement and then decide on a direction.
(1) Narrow the range of currency movement
As per the chart below, I have identified the range over the next 2 months to be from 0.9534 - 1.0234 (700 pip range). This is based on the historical analysis of 12 years of Nov and Dec ranges for the AUD/CAD which identified two interesting points:
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GBP/CAD : Future Back - further upside expected

In this analysis, I will cover three things:
  • The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")
  • The market dynamics impacting GBP/CAD 3 years ago ("yesterday")
  • The "yesterday" to "today" story
Finally, I will address how the next 2 months will differ from today and conclude with an expected rate of 1.6799 for the GBP/CAD on the 1st of November 2013.The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")GBP/CAD is currently trading above the weekly range but within the monthly range. With the daily support line a…
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Initiate short position: USD/CHF with target at 0.8750


The USD/CHF has been sending confusing signals over the last year - setting and re-setting weekly ranges (brown lines in chart above).
Having first identified a bearish divergence from Nov-12 to Jan-13, the USD/CHF traded 2x1 (time x price) creating a bearish zigzag pattern.
This pattern is setting up a nice downward trajectory. Having broken 0.9059, we will expect the USD/CHF to trade lower to 0.8250.
The last piece of the puzzle is to identify the strength of intra-day volatility. For it to b…
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