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Dollar Strength Against JPY

Overall look: The dollar seems to keep up agaisnt the JPY, with economic data coming from both countries encouranging mostly for the USD.
Chart 1: The pair seems to find resistance at the previous high at around 124. Overall strength in the dollar could push the pair higher.
Chart 2: There seems to be good SUPPORT at 115 level. From there an UPWARD move would see the pair at 131.30, the 127.2% Fibo level. We'll pick the more modest 161.8% level as our prediction from the Monthly chart.
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Dollar Strength Agaisnt MXN

Chart 1: the pair has broken through the channel and has strenghtened conisderably since.
Chart 2: If strength continues the pair will likely move to the 127.2% level at 18.12.
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USD strength against the RUB

Overall look: Low oil prices are generally not helping the case for RUB.
Chart 1: the pair has moved UP from a perceived range.
Chart 2: the pair has broken through the channel and seems to be holding. Another move UP would at the 127.2% level at 77.13, testing the previous highs.
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Trapped GBPUSD

With the BOE and the FED in a deciding conundrum about raising rates amidst mixed data, CABLE seems to be trapped in a consolidation pattern after a drop which seems to have reached all the way to the bottom of the pair.
Despite said bottom we can't really make a call of GBP rising against the dollar. Based on Chart 1: it looks like the pair is on the way of retesting the lows at around 1.45. Based on Chart 2: the pair seems likely to move between 1.45 and 1.59, with UPSIDE potential the most li…
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GBPAUD

Technically there's room for some correction in the pair. A bigger picture view is also that WTI will go up at $55, and that will give a boost to AUD.
Taking into account that currencies the past few months even if they go up and down in big movements they never seem to catch on a trend and keep going, we'll be conservative in our view and pick the 50% Fibo level 2.088 in the monthly for our prediction, which is also about the same level of the 0.236% Fibo level in the weekly chart.
Monthly:
Wee…
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NZDUSD

Our view is that commodities such as oil will go up, and NZD will benefit. Technically, the charts also point to an upward movement. Also at this point a rate doesn't seem likely and at any rate, the price at the start of December will be in a holding pattern for this particular news release. Taking into consideration that currencies struggle to ride a trend our prediction will be conservative.
We choose the 50% fibo level at the monthly chart as the price @0.7065, which is close to the 61.8% fi…
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EURGBP

Even if the charts show like the pair might go down and generally struggle to break up, we continue to believe that eur has depreciated extremely against the gbp and so despite the struggle it will at least try to reach the previous high @0.7590.
BOE will too delay a hike rate for this 2-month period in our view and some data coming in from the UK aren't as positive as others.
Although we'll support in our view a break of the 0.743 level seen in the weekly chart, we'll choose the next fibo level…
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CABLE UP

Recent price action suggests GBP strength against USD. Our view is that the FED won't raise rates in December. Regardless, the only effect this news has on the prediction is that at that time the market price action might be a bit cagey.
On the weekly chart we see MACD being bullish and Cable on its way to break a channel and try for 1.59, a previous top. Nevertheless, with currency price actions acting out of the ordinary--meaning no strong trend following after a major break, especially one af…
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GBPUSD MOVING SLOWLY ALONG A DOWNWARD CHANNEL

Macro View: The FED raised the federal funds rate during its December meeting and the pair reacted negatively to the news. This will most likely keep GBPUSD down for a month or two at least, depending on data.
Technicals: The pair will try and breach the downward channel as seen on the daily chart and go for the next available Fibonacci level which is at 1.4811, whether it will move straight down from there to the next level at 1.454 or retry 1.50 is irrelevant for the forecast since there’s bo…
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NZD/USD

MONTHLY: We assume the consolidation between 0.64 and 0.70 is over and the pair will break below 0.64 and retry the previous low at around 0.60.
WEEKLY: The pair did not form a new higher low, but instead broke the upward channel formation at play. Though this pattern isn’t a strong indication of a downward trend, based on our monthly chart view, the pair will try at least the -27.2% level at around 0.6060. Any attempt at a recovery should be capped at around 0.6240, in order to assume that the…
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EUR/USD

As wrong as it feels right now we’ll assume this 3-day EUR/USD strength, and the channel break that comes with it, is fake--similar to the fake efforts of CABLE at 1.55 before its big drop. In that case the pair will try the downward channel support at around 1.062, which is where the pair was hovering at before the 400-pip move upwards on the ECB’s Draghi speech happened. Although a move below that level is possible we’ll assume the pair will move back up inside the channel as seen in the WEEKL…
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Currency Wars

Although it's particularly challenging to predict the pair's long-term movements, we believe there's a good chance the pair has seen its lows and will oscillate between 1.07 and 1.13 with 1.05 and 1.15 as the extremes. Although, the FED is not expected by the markets to go with an increase rate in March, data for both employment and inflation (according to the FED's projections anyway) are looking good so we think there's a higher chance for a big positive movement for the dollar coming in this …
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Risks to the Downside for the EUR/USD

Based on the DAILY CHART the pair seems to have formed a bottom at the 1.038 level. Nevertheless, it's caught in a downward channel and with the European political pressure in the next few months and the upbeat FED on US rate hikes, the risks for the EUR/USD pair remain to the downside. Based on the MONTHLY CHART, it's possible for the pair to try for the previous lows at around 1.035 and a reaction at that level to bring the pair about 100 pips higher at 1.045.
DAILY CHART
MONTHLY CHART
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EURUSD Stops Fighting

On the Daily chart we see that the pair is on an upward channel. However, it fell below the 50% Fibo level (below 1.07) at the end of March. Next major support is at 1.06 and if it breaks it then even 1.038 could be in sight.
We could expect a move at 1.06 and below after the FED minutes on Wednesday 5 April or on Friday of the same week after US payrolls news.
The weekly chart offers further confidence in the analysis of the daily chart as it confirms the same levels with just a 30-pip differ…
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EURNOK Failing to Push Through Based on Oil Strength

On the daily chart the pair seems to be poised for further heights. However we expect that oil prices will manage to move above $50, potentially after an extension of the OPEC output cut agreement. Additionally, the 9.25 level has served as resistance twice now.
A downward move is also supported by the weekly chart technical analysis, where we can see 9.267 being a 50% fibo retracement level of a bigger downward move and the pair still being within the downward channel. Based on the two charts w…
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EUR/USD Looking for New Highs

As seen in the daily chart the EUR/USD is met with some selling above 1.09. There's also a gap of about 200 pips from the Monday open after the French 1st round elections. Barring any major developments in May either on the French elections front or the US--either FED or Trump-related--then the pair will most likely fill the gap at some point, reaching but probably not going below 1.07, which is the 50% fibonacci level.
From then on, judging by this month's price action, strength of European CPI…
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EUR/GBP Limited Action Expected

EUR/GBP has almost filled the French election-related gap. Though overall it looks bearish and usually we'd go with an estimate of trying the lower down channel below 0.83, based on current GBP strength and the expected EUR strength we'll go with a more bullish but limited view seeing the pair going again for the 50% fibonacci level at 0.845 as seen in the daily chart.
Based on the estimation that the pair will remain relatively subdued due to the snap elections in June 7th we'll not go for a hi…
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Bullish Movement After August

Based on the monthly and weekly chart we believe the pair won't retry the lows at the 12.40 price level, but will instead push through resistance at the previous weekly high at around 13.60.
Selling pressure is expected for August and the bullish move to happen sometime in September perhaps prompted by bond-buying program-related news and other signals from the FED. Lots of uncertainty remains and will remain for the rest of 2017 though, mainly political-related.
Nevertheless, based on technical…
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USD/JPY Limited Bullish

The pair just weeks ago had a strong technical bearish move, with the pair moving below a key retest 50% fibonacci level as seen in monthly chart 1.
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
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Bullish USD/ZAR Forecast

Looking at the monthly chart we are going for a bullish prediction for October. The pair broke through a channel and the MACD has turned positive.
Worrying signs for a bullish prediction include the timing and the MACD indicator. The timing is that the broken channel happened on the news about Turkey and the diving Lira. On top of that we don’t have a solid confirmation since the monthly close is in a couple of weeks. As for the MACD indicator it has turned at a level where it could easily turn…
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