- The 200 SMA currently lies at 111.68
- The pair seems to be range bound in 2017, oscillating between 107.3 and 115.62.
- Key Fibonacci levels are as follows. 61.8% - 112.439, 50% - 111.46, 38.2% -110.474, 23.6% -109.26.
- Bollinger bands confirm the volatility of the pair in the period.
- Expecting the pair to be above 112 at the end of the period.
- The pair will likely remain confined in the range described above
- From August 2017 to December the S and P 500 index was in a bullish channel as analysed in the daily chart above
- There was a breakout from the channel is January 2017 on the upside
- However huge volatility in the current trading of the index as indicated by the ATR reading. There is a huge spike in the ART reading in February 2018
- The volatility is likely to continue
- The currency pair has experience huge levels of voaltility as can be attested by the widely spread out bollinger bands
- The upper band is at 3.4467 whilst the lower band is at 3.31839
- The ATR rs on the high side as well at a reading of 0.0339
- The high volatility is likely to continue
- Looking at the highs and lows of 2018, the pair is likely to trade in that range
- The volatility in the pair has been low as can be seen by the low values in the ATR
- The pair has been trading in a range with the lower range at 4.1276 and the upper range at 4.1912
- I expect the range bound nature to continue
- I also expect the volatility to decrease to the low levels witnessed between November 20 17 and January 2018
- Using the highs and lows of the range the fibonacci retracement points are plotted
- There has been significantly high volatility in the USDMXN in the past months as highlighted by the spikes in the ATR readings.
- However in 2018 the pair has been trading in a range with the top range at 19 and the bottom end at 18.3086
- Taking the recent high of 19.90796 as the 100% retracement level and 18.2954 as the 0% level we can see that the spread is high and volatility is huge
- The ATR reading is at 0.2007
- Chart 1 above shows the bollinger bands on the daily chart set at 1.5869 for the upper band, 1.5717 and 1.5576 for the middle and lower band respectively
- The huge gap between the lower and upper band shows that the pair has been trading in a wide range.
- The average true range is at 0.0109 implying very low volatility
- In the second have of 2017 the pair seemed to be trading in a range with the lower bound at 1.4468 and the upper bound at 1.5239.
- A break above the upper limit in January 2018 led to a bullish rally in the pair as highlighted by the channel.
- The 2018 high is at 1.61215 and the 2018 low is at 1.48153
- It is highly unlikely that we are going to see a reversal of the bullish trend in the coming month
- The EURGBP has been trading in a range in 2018 and shown in the chart above.
- The upper bound of the range is at 0.8933 and the lower bound at 0.8708.
- In the year the price has not closed above or below these levels.
- I expect the range bound nature of the currency pair to continue
- Using the range boundaries to draw up the fibonacci retracement levels will come up with the chart above.
- The bollinger bands are widening signalling increased volatility
- This can be substantiated by the increase in the ATR to a reading of 0.0202
- The fibonacci retracement levels have been drawn from a high of 4.33182 in September 2017 and a low of 4.12747 in February 2018
- The 50% level at 4.22965 will be an important resistance point in the period under consideration.
- The price is likely to close below this point
- The ATR at 0.00878 on the daily chart means volatility is relatively low.
- However big swings can be expected in the currency pair.
- The Fibonacci retracement levels provide an interesting perspective.
- We use the 100% level at 1.3494 and the 0% level at 1.22202. The 50% level will be at 1.28561
- The 50% level is an interesting support level and the price recently bounced off this level.
- The bollinger bands are as follows, upper band at 1.84671, middle band at 1.80848 and lower band at 1.77218.
- The bands are upward sloping and the ATR is at 0.01393.
- The direction on the pair is upward and i expect it to continue on that path as indicated by the lines
- The average true range is at 13.334
- It seems that there is a very strong support level at 1300. The price has failed to break through this level in 2018
- The support level at 1300 will likely hold in the coming month given that the volatility in gold is moderate
- Now using the fibonacci retracement levels i can predict that the next move will be upward.
- I will use the 2018 highs and lows to set up the retracement levels