Activity

  
Avatar

EURUsd volatility continues

From a medium term technical time perspective my bias remains up. I believe we will break the important 1.1460 level in the next couple of weeks. This level will have to hold on the weekly candle to confirm the upside bias. My main driver behind this is still the large euro negative sentiment.
While I agree that the eurusd should hit parity I think we will need to see a shake out of short beforehand. Technically I'm thinking the 1.2250 provides a good area to go short again for the 1 level. Agai…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDCad Descending Channel

AudCad fell further in May than I expected but bounced back sharply on the last day of the month. The descending moves were quite impulsive and I still expect a decent pullback before the down trend continues. Price action suggests upside momentum to continue in June before the bears come back to the party in July.
Looking for a target of a round about the same levels as where we currently are - 0.939
Daily Projection:
Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDChf Sideways Action to Continue

Price action is more or less in line with last months forecast. The bias still remains sideways to slightly bearish and should provide opportunities for range traders. I am looking for a long in this pair but patiently waiting for price action to gravitate to the 0.695 handle before taking it. I expect more chop ahead in June before we break lower in July.
We may in fact see a breakdown in June ahead of schedule with some consolidation in early July. Either way the longer term picture is still u…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

Bears remain in control of AudJpy

Rejection of the 80.60 handle yesterday and today confirms that bears are still in control of this pair. Bulls and bears are carving out a rectangle pattern which is typically a continuation move. This should also provide some good opportunities for range traders this month. The bias remains down, so any long opportunities should have adequate stop levels attached. I already have several shorts and prefer to add to these towards the end of the month.
As you can see in the chart the trendlines do…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDNzd threatening break of triangle bottom

AudNzd didn't break as early as I expected last month but the price action remains heavy and a downside break is still high on the cards. We will need to see a decisive break 1.062 with a daily close below there to confirm this bias. This pair moves slowly, so I expect to see a gradual decline after the break into the 1.0430 area in June.
As you can see from the candle projection if this does occur we should get a retest of the support line which would then become resistance. This would give us …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDUsd continues to be a tricky customer

The Ozzie dollar continues to struggle against it's US counterpart. However holding either for long periods of time wouldn't have net you much profit since 2015. That trend is set to continue in my opinion. Since I prefer holding positions for a while I will be staying away from this pair for the most part.
My projection for June and July is mostly consolidated trading with a possibility of a bigger move in August. There is probably more value to be had in the AUD crosses.
Daily projection:
Week…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

CADJpy weaker than expected

Despite the recent rise in the oil price back up to $50 a barrel, CAD has remained weak. This does not bode well for the Canadian dollar. The yen is strong today and should remain strong throughout the remainder of the year. If we see a resumption in the drop of the price of oil we could very well see this pair fall fast.
From a technical standpoint, CAD should have retraced some of the fall which occurred in late May. We haven't seen this yet but I would still be reluctant to go long at this po…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

CHFJpy trend remains in tact

ChfJpy continues it's sell-off to new lows not seen since 2013. The trend remains in tact with my overall view of yen strength expected to stay strong against the backdrop of shaky markets around the globe. I have several shorts within 2 well defined channels looking for the 104 level in the short term. That's 500 pips from this level which is quite aggressive for a slow moving pair. We will have to see if this plays out longer though.
If we do in fact see a quick move over the next couple of se…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURAud large symmetrical triangle still in play

The EurAud pattern looks very similar to prior the 2008 global financial crisis. Technically the pattern suggests a large break to the upside with a minimum target of 1.8. I suspect this will in fact happen. The problem is when? Most traders cannot sit patiently waiting to see what happens in the months ahead.
In the mean time we should see range trading conditions between 1.46 and 1.60 which is quite a wide band for traders to play with. I am still hoping for 1 more upside move with possibly a …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURCad symmetrical triangle trade

My feeling is that this large triangle will break to the downside but I would prefer to wait for a decisive break before entering a position. In the meantime as you can see in the chart I suspect we will some upside prices in the next couple of months before we get a break. Still a difficult one to call but my price target in August is around 1.53.
Support and Resistance Levels:
1.54
1.50
1.48
1.4310
Daily Projection:

Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURJpy sloppy bearish bias

EurJpy remains in the down trend despite lots of sideways action over the last 3 months. Friday poor NFP report pushed us below the 121.70 support level which should now hold as resistance. There is a larger descending triangle in play which also suggests that the downside target is around the 116 level.
My expectation is for this level to be hit by the end of July. That does mean quite a drop from these levels in a quick amount of time. Considering all the choppy price action this pair has had …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURNzd symmetrical triangle on the verge of a break

We have been trending sideways since November of last year with lower highs and higher lows forming a classic symmetrical triangle pattern. Price action suggests a break to the downside is likely to happen. We may need to wait for the June 23rd referendum to see this happen.
When the break occurs (up or down side) expect some fast moves to occur. These are the tricky moves to ride as the market moves from consolidation to trending. Good risk/reward setup here. Looking for around 1.5160 in August…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

GBPAud tough call ahead of the June referendum

Currencies hardly ever move in 1 direction for sustained periods of time. Price levels usually return to previous levels from what I\'ve noticed. Of course, on heavy fundamental news like brexit could we see extended price levels in pound pairs?
I don't feel confident at all with this prediction given the uncertainty surrounding June 23rd but my own strategies rely on currencies hitting levels repeatedly before trending in either direction. Overall the pound looks weak on this chart so the prefe…
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

GBPCad volatility on the rise

Pound pairs continue to swing heavily as we await the referendum. They will continue to be difficult to predict until June 23rd comes round. The pair looks oversold but the fundamental risk remains clear and will probably override any technical picture.
Support and Projection Levels:
1.9525
1.92
1.8
Daily Projection:
Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDCad upward grind continues

AudCad continues to trade sideways to slightly bullish. Not much else to report here. The trend should continue. I do expect a bigger pullback to occur in August. This might possibly coincide with a pullback in oil, which has been quite high considering the oversupply in the market.
Support and Resistance Levels:
0.984
0.96
0.9450
Daily Projection:

Weekly Outlook:
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

NZDJpy on the verge of large break

The descending channel and triangle has been playing out in this pair since the start of 2016. Every other yen pair has seen dramatic declines but kiwi has held on so far by this skin of it's teeth. Not for much longer. The cracks are showing and it looks like we are going to get a large break to the downside. The target will be hard to predict on the 1st of September as I anticipate the price to move very quickly. Let's see what happens!
Support and Resistance Levels:
72.50
69.20
60

Dai
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

AUDChf Positive Momentum

AudChf has turned higher sooner than I expected. The charts look positive hinting, with other charts, that CHF is looking weak. This will be a tricky to project because typically in risk off markets CHF tends to appreciate. Will this time be different? There is still space to the upside as AUD tries to recover some lost ground due to the SNB removing the currency peg to the euro.
Support and Resistance Levels:
0.7370
0.7600
0.7835
Daily Projection:
Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

EURCad carving out symmetrical triangle?

The volatility of this pair is similar to the 2008 GFC. The oil price remains stronger than it should be off fundamentals. The pair is set to rally and we could see a nice 1000 pip move. I would not remain long though as if we get confirmation for the triangle we should see short sellers come into the market. I am expecting the price to return to it's current levels in September.
Support and Resistance Levels:
1.5430
1.5080
1.4465
Daily Projection:

Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

GBPNzd retracement ahead?

Well my forecasting on this pair has not worked out so well lately. I will say however that the pair is heavily oversold and the price action extremely impulsive. This means there is potential for further retracement. Nothing moves in a straight line (forever!) The monthly looks like we could be forming a doji. Bias remains cautiously bullish in the 2 months ahead.
Support and Resistance Levels:
2.0000
1.8870
1.8275

Daily Projection:
Monthly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
Avatar

USDZar weakness ahead

The structure we see so far in 2016 resembles the same top as 2001 and 2008. Even the brexit spike was minimal in comparison to other pairs. The rand remains strong and there seems to be some strength ahead in the months ahead if we can break 14.16. Looking for a daily close below this level to add to shorts.
Support and Resistance Levels:
14.16
13.50
13.00
Daily Projection:

Weekly Outlook:
-AgentSmith
Read full story
Translate to English Show original
More Loading...