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16/21
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Introduction I start to be interested at Forex during my PhD thesis when I read with interest some old papers about Hidden Markov Processes in Economy. As part of the thesis I decided to investigated if it was possible to apply this methodology utilized in areas like speech recognition, Macroeconomy, Physics in the FX market .I found some good articles like Stylized facts of financial time series and hidden semi-Markov models written by Bulla. But the objective was to create a HMM model that outperforms simple technical indicators.So I start to built my own HMM model, I ask to Andrea Procaccini a funny and great Matlab programmer to cooperate to do something that could have interest also out of the University walls. Cyclex We call Cyclex the model investigated. I would try to explain with no mathematical formulas some of our results.Cyclex is an exchange rate forecasting model that outperforms a random walk at short horizons and appears to be robust and efficient over different sample spans. So an easy way to translate could be THE MODEL IT IS BETTER THAN TO FLIP A COIN AND DECIDE. Later we would try to answer to the questions How better is our model compared with the flip of a coi…
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Pirjetta avatar
Pirjetta 19 Aug.

hea job.if ühendada matemaatika psühholoogia siis lõpptulemus võib olla vapustav :)

TaishaRiccara avatar

very interesting and great to see someone approach this in a more scientific manner!

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 20 Aug.

I see that this article is very popular among girls :)  As for beginner, my advise to you - evaluate your trading abilities and be patient. And of course it is important to have your own trading strategy and keep it. Good luck!

Durden avatar
Durden 20 Aug.

Thx for the suggestion, probably a yoga trainer could be profitable 

bharatholsa avatar

Nice article ) Congratulations on your success in building a running predictive forex model ) I am also very much interested in applications of applied statistics, econometrics and modeling to trading ) Hope to hear more from you on this subject )

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4/21
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In this article, I'm going to talk about FX seasonality cycles and how they can improve your trading activity and why it should not be ignored. There is no mystery that the world is full of cycles and we're governed by them and the financial market are not exception of this rule. The majority of traders will either use technical analysis, fundamental analysis or a combination of both. But the seasonality cycles will bring in a new dimension in which you can analyse the market. The time element such as the time of the day, the day of the week, the month of the year could also play a big role in how certain FX pairs may behave. So when you focus your attention purely on price and time without the noise of indicators you may notice that some pattern shows up during certain time and this patterns are known as seasonality. Seasonality are a predictable change in price that repeats every day, week, month, year at the same period in time.
This seasonality cycles will only give you the tendency of an particular currency pair to bottom or top or rally or fall, at certain point in time. The seasonality is just an average so in this regard it's better not to use it in isolation but rather in…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Metal_Mind thanks for your insights @all thanks for your support

jezz avatar
jezz 29 Aug.

Seasonal trends are related to people habits. Even though money never sleeps, it does take some vacations, which can explain the seasonal trends. And the unreliability in post-break times can be related to late data of the industrial and similar activity during the 'low' times. I think :)

Daytrader21 avatar

jezz Long time since I've seen you around here.:) You're very much right about seasonal trends being related to people habits, that's one of the reason why I've become more interested in human psychology as well. It gives you another perspective of why people do certain things. I hope to see you more often commenting on my stuff:)

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Aug.

one of the best article i have ever read in this contest. It seems that we have here a really good trader. Wish you to win this contest once again

psimmons63 avatar
psimmons63 12 Mar.

Very insightful article. I believe that seasonality gives traders the best edge in terms of technical indicators because its based on high probabilities. Do you cover any of the other majors?

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21/35
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In my prevous article dedicated to the euro I wrote about the coming recession. I thought the 1.274 level would be forbidding, but the price went higher. So the short term scenario is changed, but mid an long term are steady. The Euro will fall to 1.15 before 2013. Optimism is beyond the limit. Theese weeks are the last bullish weeks of the June-September uptrend Markets were too optimistic before Bernanke's speech and QE3 anouncing. They became more optimistic after that. Weekly surveys show about 30% of bulls on the dollar index, I guess there are less than 10% of them on daily charts. Market optimists can't understand obvious things: Bernanke promised $40 billions per month, the issue is that hundred billions of debt piramids are crushing every month and 40 billions is like a drop in the ocean... The invisible hand of market is still beating them.Both euro and dollar index are charting the ending diagonal. My mistake was that I saw the diagonal on the dollar index, but didn't on the euro. I forecasted level 80+- for DX on July 13, but I didn't understood that 80 on the DX would be equal to 1.30+- on the Euro/Dollar. The ending diagonal makes the target 1.06 more reliable.The DX.…
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Tom avatar
Tom 22 Sep.

Thanks, it's going to be a great bear market!

Alya7276 avatar
Alya7276 25 Sep.

Was a bit disappointed with your webinar, hope you`ll do your best next time!

fasolinka avatar
fasolinka 25 Sep.

good article

Tom avatar
Tom 27 Sep.

Apti, yes, Czech Republic is great!
Albert, it's very funny, but everybody is very optimistic...
Alya7276, I've made something interesting for the next time...

voskeat avatar
voskeat 28 Sep.

suddenly for me my macroeconomics lector agreed with your point of view.

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20/35
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The EUR/USD is the most popular and technically easy currency pair on Forex market. I recommend this pair every rookie trader. As to me the first thing newbie should do on market is choosing forecasting instruments.I started trading in 2005 (when I was only 15). In 2006 I discovered Elliott wave principle for myself, I learned it and made many useful and correct forecasts. For example when gold price was only $600-700 I advised my parents and relatives to buy several gold bars (50 and 100 grams). And they all took my advice. Now gold costs about 1650-1700 and according to my new forecast it gonna grow to $2000, $5000 and $15000 before 2018.My next forecasting instrument is a public opinion. I mean various surveys, bullish percent and sentiment indexes. It's not too easy to make a right short-term forecast without any sentiment index.Just look on this weekly euro surveys. Sentiment indexes are good oversold/overbought indicators, more correct and accurate than every mathematic indicators.And the third one is a cycle analysis. You could predict price levels using Elliott waves with sentiment indexes, for time forecasting you should use a cycle analysis.This article is dedicated to th…
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voskeat avatar
voskeat 28 Sep.

nice article

Tom avatar
Tom 28 Sep.

thank you.
If you mean the trade cycle reversal window it's from 25.09 to 5.10, so we are in the window.
I think, that low has been shown.

Victoria avatar
Victoria 30 Sep.

I'm not sure that euro will fall without divergences

fasolinka avatar
fasolinka 30 Sep.

Very interesting article, good luck!

Ararat avatar
Ararat 30 Sep.

Hope you`ll win, really appreciate it

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32/67
Ranking
 INTRODUCTION  Improving every day the perception of market moves and price behaviour, should be every trader's first planned target. The second one should be the amount of time to be invested to reach that target, because you must invest your time. Money will be, later, the thing you will use to operate your decisions in market.One of most important things to do while trading is understand if there's a trend, when and where will come to an end. Then, as consequence, you will need to understand what will more probably happen. To do this you should read charts and prices like you are looking a 'time table': there is the time for the up-move, and there is the time for the down-move; in the middle, we have the third one: i call it "ranging". Each of these cycles, is in perfect harmony with the other two, and until one is not ended, the other will not begin.Once a trader understand this above, as immediate consequence, he/she will see disappearing from his/her account statements a lot of loosing trades. MY METHOD I will share step-by-step my knowledge, using my favourite currency pair: GBP-USD (love-it or hate-it). What follows is more easy to understand than what actually is writing i…
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scramble avatar
scramble 11 May

@positive: of course! this is the core of my article, must invest time and time again to read what is happening in price. first thing i suggest is in this article: read if there is a trend and and what stage of strenght we are!
thank you for you comments :-)

doctortyby avatar

Swing trading is my favourite trading style, but sometimes trendlines and supports and resistences fail with a high momentum against the trend. The sentiment and volume analysis are very useful in the trend analysis especially when you are trying to identify the trend reversal. To your success, doctortyby

doctortyby avatar

I see that You have managed to put bold characters in this article, while in the first one You were not able to do it. What solution did you find for this because I still cannot obtain the bold or underlined characters in my articles??... Thank You

scramble avatar
scramble 13 May

@doctortyby: i had problems with bolds in first article due to firefox. i uploaded this wiht IExpl. i think it is because of cookies and privacy setups i have in firefox, while IE at default setup, but i'm not sure. certainly i will upload next articles in IE until i understood the problem.
about your interestin add-on in previous comment i will, probably, answer you with my next article in few hours.. just finishing now last corrections and setups ;-)

scramble avatar
scramble 25 May

@alex: lol, thank you :-) anwyay... not that low, actually rank 7 is great imo :-)

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