What the market has priced in already...
As we see, we are around the level of post referendum, when Brexit, especially hard Brexit was not certain at all. This is quite an optimistic and strong reaction from the market. The market has priced in almost a reversal in British approach.
No hard Brexit is just a hope
What we have to remember as traders is that right now it is just hopes priced in, without generally any hard facts to support them yet.
As it is used to be said 'sell the gossip, buy the fact'. The facts are still to be seen and assesed while gossip sold pretty well, giving disconnected with reality 180 degree sentiment change in the market.
Why disconnected? Well, maybe polls are not trusted recently, but this time they show Conservative Party being 20% ahead. That is quite a decisive prediction. Lead by Theresa May and her party, British would have hard Brexit almost assured, that is unless the party itself had huge internal differences in Brexit approach.
It seems that market just might have gotten a bit too excited again, this time to the upside.
The most positive scenario
Even if hard Brexit was somehow forgotten by the government, there still would be Brexit on the…