- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,198
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,180
- Upcoming events on March 24: China, France, Germany, Euro zone and US Manufacturing PMI (Mar), US CPI (Feb) and New Home Sales (Feb), UK CPI (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb)
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Among fundamentals, UK public sector net borrowing, which includes all government's tax receipts and expenses but excludes data from public-sector banks, stayed at 6.9 billion pounds in February, down more than 30% from 10.4 billion pounds during the same month a year ago. The largest part of improvement came from tax receipts as public revenues climbed 7.2%, while spending decreased 0.7%.
Meanwhile, retail sales in Canada, the 11th biggest economy in the world, dropped considerably for a second consecutive month in January due to falling prices of oil. After an upwardly revised plunge of 2% back in December 2014, sales in the beginning of the year continued to under-perform as they lost 1.8% more, when excluding automobiles.
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Inflation data from US, UK to drive Gold prices tomorrow
On March, both the United States and the United Kingdom are publishing inflation numbers for their countries in February of this year. As expected, monthly change in consumer prices in both US and UK is going to show a considerable improvement, namely a return into the positive territory as oil prices stabilised last month. In the meantime, year-to-year indicator for inflation is forecasted to stay broadly unchanged at extremely low levels just above zero percent.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish channel on daily chart
On January 22, the level at 1,300 which acted as a strong supply for Gold forced the yellow metal to resume declining. Moreover, the bullion succeeded in consolidating below 1,200 during the first week of March, following a period of considerable losses. Taking into account strength of US fundamental factors and potential positive effects from the expanded asset purchases programme in the Eurozone, the long-term outlook for Gold is remaining fairly bearish. Even though some medium-term bullishness can be created by the 2014 low around 1,130, the precious metal is likely to develop below this level in course March-April time period. Moreover, in case of consolidation below this mark, a drop down to 2010 low at 1,044 will be broadly expected to take place towards the end of May.Daily chart
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Gold rebounded for a third consecutive day on Friday and crossed a number of important resistances on its way to the north. From a third attempt, the bullion succeeded in crossing the monthly S1 at 1,173 which is accompanied by the weekly PP at 1,170. Moreover, an increase continued with a subsequent climb above 2013 low at 1,180. As a result, the precious metal has already erased around 70% of losses it was accumulating since March 5. Currently, being supported by the mentioned levels an immediate bounce-back in unlikely in the short term.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 67.52% at the moment, giving an exactly three percentage regain in course of the weekend time. Gold's sentiment is currently the third most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA. In addition, SaxoGroup market participants are also positive with respect to the yellow metal, as there are 60% of bullish positions registered by 6:30 GMT on March 23.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Feb 23 and Mar 23 expect, on average, to see Gold trading just above 1,200 by the end of June. At the same time, 53% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 29% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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