EUR/USD erases earlier gains, comes back to 1.13

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • Share of long pending orders in 100-pip range declined below 50%
  • Market sentiment remains slightly bearish (53%) for a fifth consecutive day
  • Bulls to attempt retaking Jun/May highs around 1.1450
  • 20-day SMA and 50% retracement are creating the closest support for the pair
  • Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Bundesbank Monthly Report; US Existing Home Sales (Aug); FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

© Dukascopy Bank SA
The Euro retreated precipitously on Friday as there was no increase registered versus any of major currencies. The Kiwi rallied 1.14% versus its pan-European counterpart, following a dovish decision of the Fed to keep the Fed Funds rate within the range of 0-0.25%. One more strong positive development was posted by the Japanese Yen, which also gained more than 1% on Friday. EUR/USD and EUR/AUD were close to hitting the 1% pace of drop. At the same time, the least volatile EUR/CHF currency pair was down just 0.22% during the observed 24-hour period.

A month after he resigned from the post of prime minister, Greek leftist Alexis Tsipras declared an unexpectedly decisive victory in Greece's snap elections. With 60% of votes counted, Tsipras' Syriza party is estimated to be just short of a majority with 35.5% of the vote, but the Independent Greeks agreed to join a coalition. Together, the parties would have enough seats to ensure a majority in parliament. The snap election was called after Syriza lost its majority in August. This followed the signing of an unpopular new financial bailout deal with Greece's international creditors.

In a victory speech, Tsipras pledged a new phase of stability, saying his mandate would now see him through a full term, after the country held five general elections in six years. Tsipras made no specific reference to the 85 billion euros bailout, albeit Syriza promised to implement it, while pledging to introduce measures to protect vulnerable groups. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup, said he looked forward to the immediate formation of a new Greek government with a mandate to implement the bailout.

Meanwhile, the Euro zone's current account recorded a dip in its surplus in July, just after an abrupt increase in the prior month. The current account surplus declined to 22.6 billion euros in July from June's 24.9 billion euros.

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Upcoming fundamentals: Fed's Lockhart to speak on Monday



After a series of speeches among the FOMC members on Friday and Saturday, today one more voting member, namely President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart, is going to present his view on the monetary policy of the regulator. He remained in the camp of FOMC members who voted to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. However, earlier in August Lockhart noted that he sees a hike to take place this year. He is due to speak on Monday at 17:00 GMT at Buckhead Rotary Club in Atlanta.


EUR/USD erases earlier gains, comes back to 1.13

EUR/USD failed to extend gains on Friday and failed at the May high of 1.1466. This event turned attention to the downside and the pair was sold-off down to 1.13. Bears are looking at 20-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of Jul-Aug uptrend at 1.1270/61. A failure of bulls to gain momentum from there should rule out a revival in the near term and bears are likely to aim at the next demand area placed at 1.1154/26. Aggregate daily indicators are, however, pointing upwards at the moment.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

As the one-hour chart shows, EUR/USD initially attempted to cap losses around 38.2% retracement on Friday, but the only reliable support was offered by 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.1290. This fact may support bullish case in the very short term, but overall losses are at risk of being extended in the foreseeable future.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

SWFX sentiment flat since last Tuesday

EUR/USD's sentiment among SWFX market participants is unchanged for a fifth trading day in a row as the total share of bulls has stayed at the 47% level since Tuesday of the previous week. In the meantime, advantage of bulls in terms of pending orders was eroded during the weekend, and now the portion of long commands equals to the share of bullish open positions (47%).

Meanwhile, the total number of bullish positions at OANDA amounts to 44.53% at the moment, while SAXO Bank traders are even more pessimistic with respect to the common currency as their portion of the longs takes up only 36% of all open trades.













Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.13 by December

Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Aug 21 and Sep 21 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.13 by the end of December. The majority of participants, namely 53% of them, believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.14 in ninety days, with 39% alone seeing it below 1.10. Alongside, 25% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.14 and 1.20 by the end of December of this year.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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