- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are bearish (48% long / 52% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0949
- At the same time, the nearest support is currently placed at 1.0875
- Important economic events to follow in the next 24 hours: Spain Unemployment Rate (Q2), US Unemployment Claims (Jul 17), Euro zone Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Standard & Poor's upgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating to CCC+ from CCC– and revised the country's outlook from negative to stable. S&P said it believes the possibility of Greece exiting the Euro zone by 2018 has declined to less than 50%, but the risk "is still high", particularly if Athens does not successfully implement the rescue programme. Greek banks opened their doors Tuesday after being closed for three weeks, and the Greek government met a Monday deadline to pay 4.2 billion euros to the European Central Bank and paid off some 2 billion euros in arrears to the International Monetary Fund. Yet, Greece's commitments are likely to remain "unsustainable" in the long term, S&P added.
Meanwhile, consumer spending at Italian retailers declined 0.1% in May on a monthly basis, compared with the 0.7% growth in April. In annual terms, sales revenues rose 0.3% in May after a flat reading in the preceding month. At the same time, confidence in the private sector of France, the Euro zone's second biggest economy, reached the highest level since the crisis in 2011. According to INSEE, the gauge, which measures business sentiment in the manufacturing sector, rose to 102 points, up from 100 in May. In the services sector, the indicator climbed by two points to 97, while remained stable in retail trade. The construction industry, however, recorded a decline by one point to 90 in July.
Upcoming fundamentals: Spanish unemployment to decrease noticeably in Q2
Spanish labour market data is due at 7:00 AM GMT today, while the jobless rate in the country has probably decreased from 23.8% to 22.8%. Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims in the US are expected to fall down further. The mean forecast stays at 279,000 for the week ended July 17, as the data is due at 12:30 PM GMT today.EUR/USD long-term outlook
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of September. In the medium-term the common European currency may show spikes as high as 200-day SMA and 2005 low at 1.16, but the downtrend will remain the main resistance and should be capable of pushing the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area in the long run.Daily chart
EUR/USD short-term outlook
EUR/USD was unchanged on Wednesday, after the market has sold off down to the monthly S1 at 1.0875 and recovered back in the direction of the weekly PP at 1.0949. While the mid-term outlook is moderately bearish, the pair may show local rallies in the short run. However, gains should be contained by the 100 and 20-day SMAs at 1.10, which is the main target for bulls at the moment. Bears are in turn aiming at recent lows, which are predominantly represented by the May minimum at 1.0818.Hourly chart
EUR/USD sentiment unchanged at 47%, pending orders rebound even more
Meanwhile, the portion of pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price continued to recover on Wednesday and surged up to 48%, up seven percentage points on a daily basis.
Nonetheless, it still indicates that in case EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains should be limited by the 100-day SMA, currently at 1.10. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro can be extended down to May low at 1.0818.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is undecided on perspectives of the Euro versus US Dollar this week
Roberto3, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his negative outlook towards the common currency by saying that he expects "an overall downtrend and the breaking of the low at 1.0818, if the price breaks this level, it can retrace a little bit, but overall it will continue to go down again." Moreover, Jighesh adds that "the EUR/USD pair is bearish on essentially every time frame, however, it is facing some major daily support, and the US Dollar Index is pushing up against heights."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Jun 23 and Jul 23 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just above 1.10 by the end of October. Though the majority of participants, namely 53% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop below this mark in ninety days, with 33% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 22% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of October of this year.