- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are strongly bearish (31% long / 69% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1360
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1165
- Upcoming events on June 15: Bundesbank President Weidmann Speech, Italy CPI (May), Euro zone Trade Balance (Apr), ECB President Draghi Speech, US Industrial Production (May) and Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)
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Greece's jobless rate rose in the first quarter of the year, a reminder that austerity programmes and the ongoing unresolved debt crisis has been weighing on the nation's economy. Greece's unemployment rate rose to 26.6% in the first three months of the year from 26.1% in the final quarter of 2014. The highest unemployment rate of 27.8% was recorded in the first quarter of 2014.
Meanwhile, in the Euro zone's second biggest economy, France, price growth accelerated slightly both on a monthly and annual basis in May, after escaping from deflation last month. In annual terms, the French CPI climbed 0.3% in the reported month, following the 0.1% increase in the preceding month. The measure had slid into negative territory in January for the first time in more than five years.
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Draghi to testify before EU Parliament on Monday
President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi will speak before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, explaining the most recent decisions on the monetary policy. The event is going to take place at 13:30 PM GMT in Brussels. Meanwhile, markets are also awaiting statistics on US Industrial Production for May at 13:15 PM GMT, as well as the Euro area's trade balance at 09:00 AM GMT.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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EUR/USD was sent below 1.13 on positive US fundamentals yesterday. The pair has initially sank below 1.12, but managed to bounce back towards the 1.1250 area. It confirms the fact that the common currency struggles to advance above the monthly R1/Jun 4 high at 1.1360/80. Therefore, the medium-term outlook remains for a drop in the direction of Jun 8 low at 1.1085. In the near-term, however, we may observe a rebound, judging from the daily technicals.
Hourly chart
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EUR/USD sentiment flat for fifth day, long orders plummet
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy or sell the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price crashed to their lowest level in more than 12 weeks, down from 45% to just 31% during the past 24 hours.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be capped by the monthly R1 at 1.1360. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be extended down to the weekly pivot point at 1.1126.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to trade sideways against the US Dollar this week
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aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the single currency by saying that "EUR/USD will continue its decrease, since in the daily chart price is moving lower with better than expected US non-farm payrolls data."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 12 and June 12 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just above 1.10 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 57% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade below this level in ninety days, with 26% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 16% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of September of this year.
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