- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are positive (55% bullish / 45% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1094
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0903
- Upcoming events on April 7: Euro zone Services PMI (Mar), US Consumer Credit Change (Feb)
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The ECB's official account of the last policy meeting showed the central bank may change the pace of its unprecedented bond-buying programme. While Governing Council members currently consider the scope of the quantitative-easing programme appropriate, this assessment may change over time as the latest economic estimates are surrounded by higher-than-usual uncertainty. The ECB predicted consumer prices would remain unchanged this year before climbing to 1.8% in 2017.
Meanwhile, Greece proposed its most comprehensive reform plan to its creditors during teleconference talks with the Euro Working Group, but has yet to receive any remaining bailout funds. The plan consists of a 26-page list of reform proposals covering taxation, privatisations, public sector, labour market, healthcare, and etc. The proposals were discussed by the Euro Working Group; however, there was no real breakthrough resulting in unlocking any bailout funds Greece.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Euro zone PMI to have the most impact on markets tomorrow
The most important statistical data on Tuesday of this week is assumed to be the one released by Markit. It is going to publish PMI activity indicators in the services sectors for major European economies, including Germany, France, Spain and Italy. However, the pan-Euro area's services PMI is expected to stay broadly unchanged at 54.3 points in March, underlying stable recovery of the tertiary industry.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Just before the weekend on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair rose considerably for a second day in a row, following much weaker than expected US employment change data. The Euro surged above Dec-Apr down-trend line and peaked at 1.1027, the highest level since March 26. On Monday, the pair is likely to be less volatile amid Easter holidays. Nevertheless, the pair can be easily influenced by any positive or negative impetus, as the closest resistance is located as far as 1.1094 (weekly R1) and the nearest support lies at 1.0903 (weekly PP).
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot surged to 55% today, up 13% from Friday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be extended up to the monthly R1 at 1.1160. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be limited by monthly PP at 1.0811.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 6 and Apr 6 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 57% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 16% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA