- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative (44% bullish / 56% bearish)
- In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.2228
- The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.2162
- Upcoming events: US CB Consumer Confidence
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Italy's retail sales remained stagnant in October, posting a flat 0.0% growth on month, according to Istat, after being stagnant in September. On an annual basis, sales in Italian stores dropped 0.8%, compared with a revised 0.6% decline in retail business in the preceding month. Istat also confirmed that the Italy's economy remained in a weak economic situation in the September quarter after a dire performance in the first half of the year. GDP fell 0.1% in the three months through September, while on annual basis the Euro zone's third-biggest economy booked negative 0.5% GDP growth during the reported period, following a 0.4% drop in the previous three months.
However, final GDP data for France showed that the Euro area's second largest economy returned to growth in the third, according to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies. Economic output in France recorded a 0.3% growth in the three-month period ending September, after posting 0.1% deterioration in the second quarter.
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No major data to be published until New Year
As expected, the pre-New Year period will not bring any considerably fundamental data due to a high number of bank holidays in many major economies of the world. The only high-importance data on Tuesday, December 30 is considered to be the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. However, it is still unlikely that the effect will be noticeable, while the EUR/USD will most probably remain trading with low volatility.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD to trade in the direction of 1.20
As the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair has been remaining bearish for the last couple of weeks, the cross managed to reach a new minimum of this year at 1.2163 on December 23. At the moment it is also trading below the long-term downtrend line, even though two weeks ago the pair traded above it and was showing bullish signs. Taking into account the present situation, the pair is likely to decline even more down to the 2012 low at 1.2040 in the long-term and move in the direction of the major level at 1.20. On the other hand, there is a possibility of a rebound up to 1.23, before the leadership is finally overtaken by pair's bears.Daily chart
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On December 26, the EUR/USD currency pair developed in a very calm environment during the whole trading session. A resistance at 1.2228, represented by the monthly S2 is still keeping pair's bulls under pressure, as they are unable to breach this line. Towards the end of Friday, the pair fell below 1.22, but it is still well-supported by the 2014 low at 1.2162. Even though technical indicators are bearish, we assume the cross will trade sideways in the near term.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Long positions return to 55%, pending orders remain bearish
Additionally, long pending orders in 100-pip range from the spot fell insignificantly to reach 44% on Monday's morning. It implies that, in case the pair increases, in the medium-term the pair can be stopped by the monthly S1/weekly PP at 1.2338.
On the other hand, if the pair declines, the bearish pressure may extend down to the monthly S3, which is located at 1.2098.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Euro to rebound against Greenback
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Panzer, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that the EUR/USD currency pair going test the long-term positive trend which started back in June 2011 with the price of 1.22. He also adds that he does not see "any reason for the decline in the pair, this is a strong level for strong rejection."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Nov 29 and Dec 29 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.2350 by the mid-March. Though the largest portion of participants, namely 24% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down to the 1.22/1.20 region in ninety days. On top of that, the 32% of those surveyed reckon the price will fall below 1.20 by the end of the first quarter of the next year.
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