- The share of buy orders rose from 58 to 61%
- The gap between the bulls and bears widens
- Euro is moving towards the last month's maximum
- Accelerated up-trend should prevent dips beneath 1.13
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: FOMC Member Lockhart, Evans and Brainard Speeches
Following a rebound in July, Italy's industrial production output slid into negative territory on a monthly basis in August. Industrial production in the Euro zone's third biggest economy declined 0.5% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms. Measured on an annual basis, Italy's industrial production climbed 1% in August, Istat reported. The International Monetary Fund predicted the Italian economy to expand 0.8% this year, with growth accelerating to 1.3% in 2016, compared to the previous forecasts of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, industrial production in France was much stronger in August, the INSEE reported. Measured on a monthly basis, French industrial output rose 1.6%, following a negative 1.1% reading in July. In annual terms, industrial output rose 1.6% in the reported period, compared with the revised 0.9% decline in July and analysts' expectations of a 0.2% gain. The Bank of France said that the Euro zone's second biggest economy grew less than previously estimated in the third quarter and revised to the downwards its GDP outlook. The central bank said the economy expanded 0.2% in the third quarter, lower than the previous estimate of the 0.3% growth. For the final three months of the year, the bank expects an expansion of 0.4% and 1.1% for the full year.
Week to start off slowly
The beginning of the weekly is likely to be characterised by decreased volatility despite a number of the FOMC members' speeches. Most of the bankers in the USA are celebrating Columbus today, which significantly decreases the likelihood of sharp movements in all major currency pairs. Still, we should try not to miss any hints in the speeches of the voting members regarding their opinion on the potential timing of the rate hike, especially considering the latest economic releases.
EUR/USD faces monthly R1
The immediate resistance is at 1.14, represented by the upper Bollinger band and monthly R1. The base scenario is EUR/USD bouncing off this level, but we should not rule out a possibility of a rally to the September high, especially considering that the weekly technical indicators continue to give more ‘buy' signals than ‘sell' ones. Meanwhile, most of the monthly studies are bearish, meaning in the long run we are likely to see a re-test of the major rising support line, which currently is at 1.11 dollars.Daily chart
In the hourly chart the pair is following an accelerated up-trend, which should prevent dips beneath 1.13 while the Euro is moving towards the last month's maximum. But if the bearish sentiments prevail, the focus should shift to the 200-hour SMA at 1.1240.
Hourly chart
Bears enhance advantage
Retreat of the bulls is also observed from the data of other brokers. The percentage of longs at OANDA declined further, from 43 to 39%. A similar tendency was spotted among SAXO Bank traders are well. There the share of long positions dropped from 33 to 30%.