- There is currently no significant difference between the numbers of buy and sell commands
- The closest resistance for the pair is at 1.1294
- The closest significant support is the rising support line at 1.12
- Upcoming events: Germany Trade Balance (Mar), US Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate (Apr), FOMC Member Dudley Speech
Industrial production in France remained weak in March, as drops in the production of energy and water offset increases in other industries, according to Insee. France's industrial output declined 0.3% month-on-month in March, compared with a 0.5% rise posted in the previous month. Analysts had expected a 0.1% gain. In annual terms, industrial output rose 1.3% in the reported period compared with the revised 1.2% increase in February. Also, Insee said the nation's manufacturing production remained in positive territory and climbed 0.3% on month in March, against economists' expectations for a 0.2% increase. The European Commission expected the French economy to strengthen over 2015 and 2016, with private consumption being the main catalyst of growth. The EC forecast GDP growth of 1.1% and 1.7% in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Meanwhile, in Germany factory orders rebounded in March after a plunge in the preceding month. Industrial orders rose 0.9% in the reported month, whereas analysts had expected the gauge to show 1.5% growth. In the preceding month, the reading dropped 0.9%. On a yearly basis, the gauge rose 1.9% following a 1.3% decline in the previous month. Markets had projected an annual increase of 1.9% in March.
US to add more than 200K new workers
Today, the US Department of Labour is scheduled to publish figures on the non-farm payrolls, which show a net change in employment in the country. Following an extremely weak data point of 126,000 back in March, the indicator probably rebounded to 213,000 in April, even though some expectations remain biased to the downside.EUR/USD seeks support at 1.12
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.15 mark where long-term down-trend will most probably push the cross back in the direction of the 1.05-1.10 area. In the meantime, the Euro's parity against the US Dollar is not off the table in the long-term.Daily chart
Right now EUR/USD is moving in the direction of the accelerated up-trend at 1.12, which could help the Euro rebound during the first few days next week. However, the gains should be limited by the long-term falling resistance trend-line at 1.14, which played a major role in the second half of 2014. There the bears are expected to regain control of the currency pair, and the sell-off should resume. One of the main targets will then be the 100-day SMA at 1.11.
Hourly chart
Bears still dominate the bulls
The sentiment of the OANDA traders keeps deteriorating with respect to the single currency. The percentage of long positions has dropped from 43 to 42% during the last 24 hours. On the other hand, SAXO Bank traders are becoming more optimistic regarding the prospects of the Euro, but they are still mostly bearish, since the share of the bulls went up from 33 to 39%.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US Dollar this week
SWFX traders who took part in our this week's survey on the EUR/USD currency pair now predict a correction of take place during the period until May 8. The sentiment is more or less neutral with a marginal (53.3%) advantage of positive votes. Despite that, Dukascopy Community members suggest the pair will close above 1.11 level by the end of this week.
One of the community members participating in the survey, geula4x, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "EUR/USD seems very bullish on the daily chart. Price has bounced off 1.0660 support area and moved sharply higher last week. This area is double-bottom support, which held price from April 21 till April 23. Price has been moving strongly higher, suggesting that bullish momentum is intact."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Apr 7 and May 7 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.08 by the end of August. Though the majority of participants, namely 53% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop below this level in ninety days, with 32% alone seeing it below 1.04. Alongside, 26% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.08 and 1.14 by the end of August of this year.