XAU/USD short-term forecast
XAU/USD 1H chart shows a dominant bearish trend from the 4748 high, which has paused to form a consolidation base above critical support at 4485. The immediate price action is testing a pivotal inflection point at 4554.25, intersecting directly with the down-sloping 30 SMA. A rejection here keeps the bias firmly bearish for a retest of the recent 4485.00 lows, while a sustained hourly close above the 30 SMA would confirm a minor structural breakout, opening the door for a corrective relief rally toward the major support-turned-resistance zone at 4643.60.
XAU/USD daily charts review
XAU/USD daily chart reveals that the hourly consolidation is taking place at a critical macro inflection point, where the broader bullish structure from early 2026 has transitioned into a medium-term corrective phase below a descending 30-day SMA. The current daily candle features a highly significant liquidity sweep below major historical support, driving down to a low of 4480.065 before aggressively bouncing back above the crucial 4495.00 horizontal floor.Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
68.56% of traders are currently holding long positions, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among retail participants. This represents a significant, over 30% increase in long positions, leaving only 34.15% of traders in short positions.