For the City it could mean a loss of some businesses to Europe, if we do leave the EU.
We would broadly agree with that, as the UK cycle matures, growth is slowing towards its long term sustainable level of around 2%.
In my opinion, it is possible; however, that would require rather significant changes in policy making, and it will take quite a long time for these changes to start having effect.
China is attempting to shift away from an export-driven and investment-led economy to a more balanced consumption-oriented one. To achieve its goals and double GDP from 2010 levels, the Chinese leadership has set out on an extensive reform agenda. This includes further financial market liberalisation and state-owned enterprise, fiscal, and rural land reform. What will be the major risks for
RBNZ governor Wheeler has talked down the chances of interest rate cuts, dismissing the need for a knee-jerk reaction to a weaker inflation caused by slumping oil prices, and suggested that "some recent inflation indicators are encouraging". Do you believe that this confirms the bank's lack of urgency in responding to the weak inflation dynamic? What changes do you expect
Oil futures finished higher last Tuesday on hopes that members of the OPEC and producers outside the cartel may reach an agreement to cut output to stem the persistent slump in oil prices. However, as Iran attempts to rapidly increase exports and Saudi Arabia signals little willingness to cut production, does the OPEC's ability to boost prices remain existent?There has
I believe the statement is absolutely right, because the ability of the Bank of Canada to influence activity is very limited.
Our basic scenario is that we do not expect the Bank of Japan ease further its monetary policy.
We are seeing commodities trading at record lows at the moment, while analysts say that hopes for a near-term recovery are getting dimmer and dimmer. What is your outlook on the global commodity market?At the current moment, most of commodities are in bad shape mainly due to oversupply of just about everything on the market: there is too much of
Barclays sees the US economic expansion as likely being intact, and what we base it on is the US labour market as being the best indicator of where we are in the cycle.
Do you expect additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in 2016?Currently, we do not expect any further measures by the ECB. The monetary policy stance is very accommodative, and it will be so at least until the end of this year. The risks for this view are on the downside. Recent inflation rates have underlined this once again. Thus, we cannot
There are certainly risks to the downside from the global economy.
We can see that they have taken some precautionary measures at the moment, since Saudi Arabia does not want to run down the reserves at full speed.
How do you evaluate the performance of the Euro during the Q1 of 2016 and what will be the major drivers for the Euro throughout the same period?Our current outlook is that the Euro will come under renewed depreciation pressure during the first quarter of this year as the economy as well as inflation in the Euro zone continue to
What will be the main drivers for AUD during the 1st quarter of 2016?I believe that the AUD will continue to weaken on a broad basis in the first quarter of this year as lower commodity prices and a weaker Chinese economy continue to provide considerable headwinds for the Australian economy as well as inflation. And this in turn should keep
For the moment the SNB is still intervening on the markets to support it.
The Federal Reserve finally decided the economy was strong enough to handle the first increase in interest rates in nine years, but is the US economy really on the solid ground? What is your thought on the matter? Was the hike justified enough?To my mind, the US economy is on pretty solid ground at the moment. There certainly are risks,
If you look at the forecast from the SNB for 2016, I would not say that it is too optimistic and we are slightly below this projection.
What are the return expectations for each EM asset class in 2016?Not very flash, we are afraid. We think equities EM give us around 3% returns next year, sovereign and hard currency bonds 0-2% (though with less volatility than equities), while local currency bonds will likely give returns between -2 to 0%, thanks to weakness in currencies.Will EM create a
Since November 2014, the People's Bank of China has cut its interest rate already six times. Should we expect another cut coming in the nearest future?We continue to expect monetary easing. Although monetary policy is becoming less stimulative on its own, easing nonetheless helps to ensure an accommodative environment in which fiscal measures and structural reforms can take root. We
The potential growth rate of the Japanese economy is probably very low at around 0.7% according to our estimates.
The current drop in oil prices suggests that the country's economy is currently facing a deep recession. Do you agree with this view? What reforms should be introduced to prevent the economy going deeper into crisis?Russia's well-known external challenges are likely to continue in the near term. As such, we think any 2016 recovery will be subdued at best, and
The world has been recently warned of a possible new financial crisis, particularly in emerging markets, when central banks start raising interest rates. An interest rate increase from the US Fed is likely to be a catalyst for the crisis in emerging markets, which most of economists believe will begin the next month. What is your view on the prospect
To my mind, there are several factors weighing on the competitiveness of UK goods.