The Australian Dollar has been very strong since the start of the year and it is very much case that we have seen a lot of good news. However, the currency may be under selling pressure over the next month or so, probably in March rather than February.
Undoubtedly, the data on US economy has been recently very good. We are witnessing some upside surprises from data globally, not only in the US. We consider there is a positive momentum that will continue for a bit longer. We have a fairly bullish outlook for the Dollar in the first half of 2012, but in the second half we
Edward WalkChief Economist at MetzlerThe current situation with the European economy? Well, it seems that the troika of inspectors - the IMF, the EU and the ECB are not satisfied with Greece because it did not fulfill their main requirements - austerity and restructuring of bonds. I think that especially Germany has lost patience and there is a high probability that
Currently we have a slightly negative outlook on the Scandinavian currencies due to their apparent economic exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis and the ongoing uncertainty over the resolution of the economic doldrums. We have a below consensus view on the Euro zone and we are anticipating some growth outlook ahead.
Generally we are bullish on the precious metals sector. Our forecast for gold is $1.800 an ounce for the yearly average, potentially it could even hit nearly $2.000 an ounce in the Q4 of 2012. For silver we forecast a price of $35 an ounce as a yearly average. Palladium is anticipated to reach $760, while platinum is expected at
In terms of USD/JPY we have right now a bit of correction lower and going lower basically in the afternoon in Europe. The main sore behind the USD/JPY is that a lot of people have been netting that the Yen would weaken ahead of the new fiscal year in Japan by pressuring the Yen lower and relative to, for example,
Our assumption for gold is that we will see stronger prices in 2012, but there are certain issues in the gold market that are going on right now. We have noticed quite sharp sell-downs for gold at the end of Q3 and at the end of Q4. It means that the prices actually come down quite rapidly in the last
The geopolitical tension between the West and Iran poses a risk to oil prices as the West pushed to discourage Iran's nuclear activity with an embargo on Iran's oil. At the moment it looks like there is a small chance of anything dramatic happening.
We believe there is potential for the Bank of England to implement more Quantitative Easing. The British are likely to increase the asset purchase target to GBP400 billion. We look forward to cable dropping further over the upcoming months.
We are expecting the overall market turmoil to weight on the Ruble in the Q1. Moreover, the Presidential elections in Russia in March this year will also augment the political uncertainty. In our view, during the Q1 of 2012 the Ruble will remain weak, but in general, the outlook for the Russian economy is positive and rather stable.
We are expecting Gold to reach 1550 at the end of Q1 2012 and by the end of the year a further decline to 1150. The number one argument for this forecast is the decrease in investor risk aversion and a peak up in the economic growth in the developed countries, in particularly, the United States.
Sweden currently takes advantage of the very sound fundamentals, including solid public finances and a very low government debt. In the 90s Sweden experienced a hard real estate crisis and has driven lessons out of that situation.
We still see the Canadian Dollar playing very much on the market sentiment and we actually think that global recession fears have been priced too hard on the financial markets. Given that we look forward to decent growth from the US we consider that there still is some upside for risky assets from here.
For the EUR/USD we believe there will be pressure in the Q1. The pair could easily hit the 1.25, but basically, the recovery will follow over the remaining part of the year 1.30 up to 1.35. The main reason is that we see various episodes of Eurozone's stress intensifying in the Q1 with many potential catalysts, be it the escalation
For the moment we are quite positive for the Aussie. First of all, we still observe quite high commodity prices combined with a rather stable current mood on the financial markets. These factors support the Australian Dollar which additionally benefits from the sound fundamentals, such as favourable fiscal situation in Australia, very low GDP ratio, as well as dynamic Asian
Our 3 month forecast for the cable is down to 1.50 so we are looking for more Sterling weakness against the US Dollar.
I see the Euro moving to 1.25 perhaps in the near term which will occur as a result of a collapse in confidence overall. The indicators will continue to point the Euro downside. We are forecasting 1.29 for the Q1 as we have some expectations on stability near the very end of the quarter. I suspect the lowest point the Euro can reach
In light of a continuing European debt crisis and uncertainty in the financial markets, Dukascopy has interviewed Hideaki Miyajima, Professor of Finance at Waseda University, Tokyo, in order to find out more about Japan's long-term growth and Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Dukascopy is continuing to inspect the current European debt crisis, the recent adoption of the fiscal EU Treaty as well as UK's rejection of the Treaty. Today we bring you the insight on the matter from the expert in finance, Professor Malcolm Sawyer.
With the help of an expert in Finance, Professor Stuart Hyde, Dukascopy is bringing you the insight of the UK's economic situation, the motives of the UK's Prime Minister's stepping away from the corrections to the EU Treaty, as well as the possible scenarios for development of the Euro area.
In the second talk with Francis Lui, Professor of Economics at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Dukascopy Bank has asked Professor to comment specifically on the Chinese currency's potential entering free-trade and becoming a future global reserve currency.
As the economists predicted, the debt crises in Europe and the US are having impact on the global economy. Quite recently China has announced about its slowing growth and potential financial troubles. Dukascopy Bank has interviewed an expert in Chinese economy, Professor Francis Lui, to learn about what is actually going on in China at the moment and what are
Following the interview with Professor of New York University, Lawrence White, Dukascopy has interviewed another expert in the area of financial markets and regulation, Professor of Law at University of Pennsylvania Law School, Jill Fisch, who shared her view on the rating agencies and their role, as well as accountability for the financial crisis of 2008.
Dukascopy is persisting to find out more about the rating agencies that are often blamed for the failure to predict the financial crisis of 2008. As they are said to play a significant role in the ongoing European debt crisis, we have asked an expert in Economics, Professor of New York University, author and editor of a number of books