- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish (-1%)
- 54% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Downside potential until 1.2350
- Upcoming fundamentals: FOMC Members Brainard, Quarles and Mester to speak, US Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The pair remains trading along the 55-hour SMA towards the senior channel.
The Greenback strengthened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Building Permits data report on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only 3 pips, or 0.03%.
The Census Bureau released the Building Permits data that came out slightly better-than-expected and instead of the forecast of 1.33M, the residential building permits grew by 1.35M in the period of March.
Building Permits rose by 2.5% annually, reaching the 1.354M growth pace, thus signaling how much of a construction is in the process. Moreover, single-family house building has retained close to the utmost levels ever since the recession began.
Speeches today
No significant fundamentals are scheduled for this session, except for speeches three FOMC members, namely, the Federal Reserve Governors Lael Brainard and Randal Quarles and the President of the Federal Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester at 1200GMT, 1330GMT and 2245GMT, respectively.
In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is to release its manufacturing index at 1230GMT.
EUR/USD with no changes
EUR/USD was driven by slight upside risks on Wednesday. This movement was guided by the 55-hour SMA and a channel line. From the upside, the pair was restricted by the psychological 1.24 mark which has provided strong resistance during the past two weeks. Lack of fundamentals in the given session resulted in the pair returning to its Wednesday morning level of 1.2380.It seems that the Euro is trying to edge lower, so a decline should occur if the 55– and 100-hour SMAs are breached. The nearest downside target in this case is the 200-hour SMA or the weekly PP at 1.2345 and 1.2330, respectively.
On the other hand, the same lack of fundamental releases may maintain the rate stable, thus allowing for a move along the 55-hour SMA and towards the senior channel near 1.24.
Hourly Chart
Despite breaching the 55-hour SMA late in March, the Euro managed to reverse from the long-term channel and return back to this line. However, it is still expected that the pair ends this correction north and targets the 1.2150 area this week where the monthly S1, the 100-hour SMA and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement are located.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment grows stronger
The SWFX market sentiment for EUR/USD is 52% bearish (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bearish and the US Dollar is 54% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders has weakened to 59% (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 64% of open positions being short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility