Eventually, on Thursday, the commodity price managed to pass the resistance of the 1,950.00 mark and reach the 1,960.00 level.
During Friday's trading hours, the price fluctuated between the 1,950.00 and 1,960.00 levels. In addition, the metal could be squeezed in between the support of the 55-hour SMA and the resistance of the 100-hour SMA.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week will end with the US Retail Sales data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
Despite the next week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD. Equivalent minor moves occurred on other pairs.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
From the one hand, it is possible that yellow metal could gain support from the 55-hour SMA near 1,934.00 and extend gains against the US Dollar in the short run. Note that the rate would have to surpass the 200-hour SMA near 1,995.00.
On the other hand, the exchange rate could remain under pressure of the 100-hour SMA near 1,963.00. Thus, gold could consolidate against the Greenback.
Namely, a squeeze in is about to occur. A squeeze in, in theory, results in a sharp break out either up or down, when the resistance or support suddenly give up and all of the piled up momentum finally moves.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the recent high and low levels have revealed a large channel up pattern, which has been guiding the price since March.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders set up buy orders
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was neutral, as of total open position volume 51% was short.
On Thursday, the sentiment was 53% short.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the orders were 67% to buy.
Previously, the orders were 60% to sell.