On Thursday, the XAU/USD exchange rate tested the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern.
From a theoretical point of view, some downside potential could prevail within the following trading hours.
This week there are no events left that could affect the XAU/USD pair.
Next week there will be one data release, which might impact the price of gold through a value adjustment of the USD.
On Thursday, October 24, the US Durable Goods Orders data will be released at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Wednesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate increased to the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern at 1,492.00. During today's morning, the rate was trading near the given line.
From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that some downside potential could prevail in the market. In this case, the price for gold could target the psychological level at 1,478.00/1,480.00.
However, note that yellow metal could face support of the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, currently located circa 1,488.00. Thus, if the given pattern does not hold, gold could target the 200-hour SMA at 1,495.49.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the low level of October 1 has provided a reference point for charting patterns. A confirmed large scale ascending pattern has been spotted and added to the chart by Dukascopy Analytics.
It can be seen that the September surge occurred in the borders of the pattern until it met with its resistance line.
Meanwhile, in the borders of the larger pattern there exists a smaller channel down pattern. It represents the commodity price's consolidation in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily Chart
Traders remain neutral
On Thursday, 52% of open gold position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were bullish – 59% of orders were to buy and 41% to sell.