Economic Calendar Analysis
This week, there are a couple of US macroeconomic data releases, which might impact gold through the strength of the US Dollar.
On Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be released at 14:00 GMT.
On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published at 12:15 GMT.
On Thursday, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be published.
The week will end with the biggest event of the month in the US, the employment data publication, on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The release will consist of three data sets being published. The Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings.
The Average Hourly Earnings is the top number to watch. It is closely followed in importance by the Non-Farm Employment change. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate can be ignored by financial traders.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Monday, the XAU/USD exchange rate breached the descending triangle pattern south. During today's morning, the rate was testing the support level formed by the Fibo 23.60% at 1,462.89.
If the given support holds, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail in the market. However, it is unlikely that the price for gold could exceed the 1,485.10/1,504.69 area due to the resistance cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the monthly PP.
If the given support does not hold, it is likely that yellow metal could continue to decline against the Greenback. In this case it is expected that the nearest support level—the monthly S1, is located at the 1,439.32 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the price for gold pieced the support of the 55-day simple moving average and clearly broke off it.
Next support to take into account on the daily candle chart is the 100-day SMA, which on Tuesday was located near the 1,426.51 mark.
Daily Chart
Traders are neutral
On Tuesday, 51% of open gold position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the pending orders were mostly bearish– 78% of orders were to sell and 22% to buy.
Previously, the orders were 59% to buy.