Meanwhile, note that the commodity price made a retracement back down to the 1,490.00 level, during which the 100-hour simple moving average approached from below.
Economic Calendar Analysis
During this week there are a couple of government macroeconomic data releases, which might cause sudden moves in the value of the USD. If the value of the USD changes, the price of gold should also change.
On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index is set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release has two numbers being published that are important. Namely, the CPI and Core CPI.
The CPI differs from the Core CPI by not having included food and energy prices. That is done to see the inflation of goods that are not a basic nesecity.
On Thursday, the US Retail Sales are expected to cause a move at 12:30 GMT. Note that this release also will consist of two numbers.
The Core Retail Sales do not include auto sales. People buy cars on debt, paying the same amount of money each month and continue to buy the needed transportation no matter what. The elimination of auto sales improves retail sales as a measure of economic growth.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
During the previous trading session, the XAU/USD exchange rate traded downwards within the cluster formed by the Fibonacci 0.00% retracement at 1,509.17 and the psychological level at 1,490.00.
During Monday's morning, the rate was trading within the given cluster. If it holds, it is likely, that gold could maintain its consolidation against the US Dollar within the following trading session.
However, note, that the exchange rate is supported by the 100-hour moving average, currently located at 1,491.68. Thus, the price for gold could go upwards in the short term. A possible target is the monthly S3 at the 1,521.59 mark.
Hourly Chart
The massive scale pattern of the weekly candle chart has been broken. The metal continues to surge. As this pattern has been broken, there is no technical resistance to the metal.
Meanwhile, note that the daily simple moving averages are located below the 1,300.00 level. It is a clear indicator of how much the metal is overbought.
However, the move is purely fundamental. Due to that reason the indicators have a small impact on the price.
Weekly Chart
Traders remain short on gold
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 73% of open gold position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the orders were bullish- 64% were set to buy, and 36% of orders were set to sell.