Gold has increased its trading volatility. Namely, it is moving more sharply with larger hourly candles.
In regards to the future, the metal is still expected to test the resistance of the monthly pivot point at 1,287.27.
This week there are three notable events on the economic calendar that traders will watch.
On Wednesday, the markets will watch the Bank of Canada Rate Statement at 14:00 GMT. This event has caused since October 2018 moves from 67 to 93 base points on the USD/CAD.
It is currently the top creator of sudden volatility in the markets.
On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the US Preliminary GDP will be published. This event, which is considered and shown on the calendars as a top mover, has not caused notable moves.
Since November 2017 this event has caused on the EUR/USD moves from 6.8 to 11.9 pips during the five minutes after the release. Note that a move below ten pips on the EUR/USD during five minutes happen often without any data being published.
The week will end with the Canadian GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves from 21 to 64 pips since December.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
During Monday, the XAU/USD exchange rate reversed north from the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel at 1,277.35. During today's morning, the rate skyrocketed to the 1,284.00 level.
Given that the price for gold is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely, that bulls could continue to prevail in the market. In this case, the rate has to surpass the monthly PP at 1,287.27.
On the other hand, the price for gold could trade sideways, trying to surpass the given moving averages, currently located in the 1,280.38/1,283.45 range.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart the recent low levels of May have provided the needed reference points to drawn an ascending channel pattern.In general, it is expected that this pattern guides the rate up until August.
However, the rate first needs to pass the strong resistance of the levels near the 1,290.00 mark.
Daily Chart
Short sentiment remains unchanged
The SWFX sentiment was 65% short since Friday.
Namely, 65% of open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current price 61% of pending orders were set to sell the metal.