The volatility of the yellow metal increased in the second part of Monday's trading. The metal's price dropped back down to the support of the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages at the 1,289.00 level.
The event caused another surge, which was set to surge and once more test the upper trend line of a channel down pattern, which can be best observed on the hourly chart.
In general, the surge was expected to continue when the 55 and 100-hour SMA approach it from the bottom and push it upwards.
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The meeting summary stated, "With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier."
Brexit takes all attention
Fundamental data traders will mostly pay attention this week to the Brexit vote at the UK's Parliament. Meanwhile, macro release traders will still have events to watch and trade.On Tuesday, at 13:30 GMT the US Producers Price Index will be published. The release will be covered mainly due to Dukascopy Analytics sticking to the rule – If it causes 10 pips, we over it.
US PPI causes mostly just above ten pip moves. Enough to trigger a trailing stop loss, but not enough to actually change a strategy.
On the same day note that the ECB President Draghi will testify before the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Some of his comments might cause an increase of volatility in the EUR pairs.
On Wednesday, at 09:15 action will begin in the UK. Namely, at that time the Bank of England Governor Carney will report to the UK treasury about his actions. Most likely he will report how he dealt with Brexit volatility and lay out the bank's future scenario in regards to the results of the Parliament vote on Tuesday.
Simultaneously to the reporting of Carney, the UK CPI will be published. This data release usually causes moves of around 20 base points. However, this time Dukascopy Analytics expect all attention to be taken away by the Carney's report.
Besides a speech at the G20 Meetings by Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda at 03:20 GMT, there is nothing on Thursday to watch.
On Friday, two data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Around 10-40 base point move can be expected during the event.
The biggest event of the will occur at 13:30. The Canadian CPI will be published. On the USD/CAD there are 30 pip moves even when it hits the forecast. When the data is different there have been 40-85 pip moves.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Monday morning hours, the yellow metal broke through the resistance levels of the 55-hour simple moving average and the 23.60% Fibo to trade at 1,293.44.
Most likely, the gold will keep surging towards the upper boundary of the descending pattern line at 1,297.00. Besides, the 23.60% Fibo and the 55-hour SMA will try to support the yellow metal during the trading session.
Moreover, the yellow metal could be sure that it will not depreciate against the US Dollar due to a lack of any significant fundamental news which could affect the rate during the day!
Hourly Chart
A large scale review of the yellow metal's daily chart has been conducted. Zoom out the chart to see more details.In general we have identified three patterns, which represent three various large scale trends. Two of the patterns are junior to the dominant one and have guided the commodity price into the upper trend line of the largest pattern.
The commodity price is set to test and make one attempt after another to pass the upper trend line of the just mentioned pattern near the 1,300.00 mark.
From a fundamental large scale perspective, if the US Federal Reserve slows down their restrictive monetary policy, then the US Dollar would lose value. In that case gold prices will surge above the 1,300 level.
It could occur through a sudden jump caused by a Federal Funds Rate announcement or a press conference hosted by the central bankers.
Daily Chart
Traders short the yellow metal
On Monday, traders were short in 61% of cases. Namely, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 61% of open gold positions were selling.
In the meantime, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range were set to sell. 56% of close by orders were set to sell.
Traders are still waiting for a decline of the metal. Moreover, some have set up pending orders to also open short positions. Most likely they are waiting for a sell signal like the passing of the 200-hour SMA.