- SWFX market sentiment is 71% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 51% of cases
- Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT
After trading sideways on Wednesday, gold prices jumped back up to the levels just below the 1,230.00 mark. During the sudden fundamental moves the metal's price has increased volatility massively.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
Federal Reserve information incoming at 19:00 GMT
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
These events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Wednesday's trading session, the yellow metal broke most of the technical indicators to appreciate by 1096 pips or 0.90 %. During Thursday morning hours, the gold broke the resistance of the 61.80% Fibo to trade at the 1,226.42 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will trade sideways to stay at the 1,228.00 level on Thursday. Besides, the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level should support the gold during the day.
However, the yellow metal could pass through the support of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level to trade at the 1,222.00 level.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the retracement downwards was stopped by the strong support cluster at the 1,213.00 mark. At that level the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages were holding ground. In addition, the monthly pivot point was a part of the support cluster.Meanwhile, note that on the daily chart the metal has no technical resistance as high as the 1,245.00 level.
Daily Chart
Long sentiment decreases
By the middle of Thursday's trading session SWFX traders were no longer as bullish as previously. Instead of 74% of traders being long, 72% of traders were long on Thursday.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range are slightly tilted to the bullish side. Namely, 54% of trader set up pending orders are set to buy gold.
This proportion had not changed since Wednesday.