Gold trades in pattern

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
  • Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 53% of cases
  • One release this week will impact gold prices

Gold has declined in the borders of the previously discovered pattern as expected. However, the decline seems to have ended on Tuesday. Read the hourly chart's review for more details.

Latest Fundamental Event

The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 4.9M, compare to forecasted 2.5M.

On November 21, US President Donald Trump posted on his Twitter account: "Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!"

Wait for the US GDP on Wednesday

This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.

First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.

On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.

On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.

Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.

All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
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XAU/USD short term forecast

The previously discovered descending channel pattern has been fully confirmed. Gold price has declined after encountering the patterns resistance line and declined down to the 1,220.00 level.

The commodity price has reached the support of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,220.00. It is expected that the metal will eventually pass the support of the Fibo, as it is expected to reach the lower trend line of the channel down pattern.

Although, there is not much to gain there, as the lower trend line of the pattern is located at the lowest at the 1,217.00 level.

Hourly Chart

Previously, on the daily chart it was already expected that a medium scale descending pattern will reveal itself. However, there is something more important to pay attention on the daily chart.

The 55 and 100-day simple moving averages have met at the monthly pivot point at 1,213.85. The meeting of these SMAs does not only indicate that there is additional support upcoming from the 55-day SMA, but also a cross of shorter simple moving average of a longer one is considered as a buy signal.

Daily Chart

Sentiment is unchanged on Monday

Since Thursday, traders remained 72% long on the yellow metal. This was considered as a neutral sentiment for gold, as there are many holders holding long positions.

On Tuesday, traders had become 75% bullish, which clearly signalled that traders were expecting a reversal.

Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range are slightly tilted to the bullish side. Namely, 53% of trader set up pending orders are set to buy gold.

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