- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 67% of cases
- Take a look at the updated fundamental part
By looking at the daily chart it can be observed that the commodity price is set to reach the 1,200 mark. The price has passed support levels near the 1,210.00 level and has no other support as low as the mentioned 1,200.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve released US Federal Funds Rate that came out in line with expectation of 2.25%. In addition, the FOMC Statement data release came out on Friday at 19:00 GMT.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex comments "Fed says little and does less. Recognizes strong economy and acknowledges moderation of business investment, with inflation near target. Nothing to do. No hint at money market pressures or weakness in housing. FOMC to market: See you in December. Gradual hikes to continue."
Various data sets incoming
This week macroeconomic data release traders will have a lot to do. Starting from Tuesday, almost each day a notable data release is expected to cause sudden fluctuations of at least ten base points.On Tuesday morning the UK Average Earnings Index and other employment data sets will be published. The data release will occur at 09:30 GMT.
On Wednesday, there are two data releases that are set to be covered. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets will be released.
Thursday will be the last day with notable data releases. At 09:30 GMT the British will publish their retail sales data. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.
For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, the gold will move sideways to trade below the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level during the day. Most likely, the lack of fundamental news should not break the predictions for the gold on Monday.
On the other hand, the yellow metal could break the resistance of the 50.00Fibo at 1207.49 to surge towards the monthly pivot point at the 1213.84 mark.
Hourly Chart
The support levels located from the 1,210.00 to 1,215 have failed. The rate is heading to the lower trend line of the dominant ascending channel pattern near the 1,200.00 mark.
Daily Chart
Massive amount of buy orders
Traders remain long on gold. 73% of all open positions were long on gold. Although, note that there are a lot of gold holders not traders involved in this statistic.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range 71% of trader set up orders were set to buy. Previously, more than 80% of traders were set to buy.
In general, the recent decline was not big enough for gold holders to dump their positions. Moreover, there are still traders, who are preparing to buy the metal. It is highly possible that buying will take place near the 1,200.00 level.