- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to sell in 54% of all cases
- US data might impact gold prices
The yellow metal has reached the upper trend line of a dominant ascending pattern. As the trend line of the pattern has no other technical level of significance near it, it might be broken.
Latest Fundamental Event
Oil price have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 68 pips, or 0.96% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 70.10 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 6.5M, compared to forecasted 1.6M
"A tick higher in refining activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the Gulf was not enough to halt a fourth consecutive climb in (inventories)- and a solid one at that," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in Louisville, Kentucky.
US data will impact gold at the end of the week
Two data releases in the US might impact the price of the yellow metal through the US Dollar.First note that the US Durable Goods orders will be published at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.
The data release with the biggest impact will be on Friday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Advance GDP q/q and the Advance GDP Price Index q/q at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
Gold prices have surged on Tuesday morning and reached the upper trend line of a dominant ascending pattern near the 1,235.00 level.
If the commodity price breaks the resistance of the trend line, the metal is set to surge at least up to the 1,240.00 mark.
Hourly Chart
Dukascopy Analysts adjusted the dominant ascending pattern's resistance line to match the recent booked high. It can be seen that, by doing the adjustment, a pattern with more confirmation points can be seen.
If this pattern guides the rate in the near future, the metal should decline or trade sideways until the end of this year.
Daily Chart
Sentiment remains long on gold
On Tuesday, 70% of Dukascopy traders were long. This means that they were profiting from the surge of the metal.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders are still mostly set up to buy more gold. 74% of all orders are set to buy.
It seems that Duakscopy retail traders and gold holders still intend to buy more gold, as they expect it to gain even more value.