- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- 53% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL Gold
- No data releases will impact gold prices this week
After touching the 1,205.00 level gold had retreated down below the 1,200 one more. The commodity price continued to fluctuate around the various hourly simple moving averages. Meanwhile, the support of a dominant pattern was located just below the price.
Oil prices have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 22 pips or 0.31% after which, the rate surged upwards to trade at the 70.80 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Levels data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 5.3M, compare to forecasted negative 1.3M.
The Dukascopy analysts were not expecting the price drop of negative 22 pips or 0.31% at the release time. The crew predicted the price surge at the release time, but the expectations were not fulfilled this time.
The released number is putting stockpiles 3% below their five-year average for the US Crude Oil Inventory according to the Energy Information Administration.
Almost empty week for macroeconomics
There will be no data releases that might impact the strength of the US Dollar and with it the prices of gold. Although, macroeconomic data traders will have other data releases to trade.
On Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the platform ten minutes before the event to watch the coverage.
On the same day at 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near future, the rate will face a breakout, most likely, to move upwards due to support of the 200-hour and the 55-hour simple moving averages and the additional support of the monthly pivot point at the 1,195.60 mark.
However, the SMAs could become resistance for gold, which could try to push the rate downwards to the monthly PP at the 1,195.60 mark.
Hourly Chart
The recent surge has provided the opportunity to use the low levels for the drawing of a new ascending channel pattern. Although, note that fundamental events might once more push the yellow metal prices in a way that smashes technical chart patterns.
In addition, note that there are larger scale resistance levels on the chart. For example, the surge recently was stopped by the 1,212.70 level, where a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. Moreover, the 55-day simple moving average was approaching the commodity price near the 1,213.80 level.
Daily Chart
Markets remain long on gold
Swiss traders remained long on gold, as 73% of trader open positions were long since Monday
Meanwhile, most trader set up pending orders are set to buy the metal by closing short positions or opening additional long positions. Namely, 56% of all trader set up orders are set to buy the metal under various conditions. This indicates that the retail sector might push the price higher, if it breaks the resistance of the SMAs.