GBP/USD encounters resistance above 1.2700

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The GBP/USD gained additional support from the 50-hour simple moving average and extended its surge. The surge eventually hit the resistance of the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1.2724 that combined with the fundamental background started a consolidating decline. Namely, the markets wait for the US GDP release at 13:30 GMT, due to which profits from the long positions are being booked to avoid potential risk.

Note that the data release is capable of impacting the rate by causing major volatility in the form of an adjustment to the divergence of the released data from the market forecast. Furthermore it is most likely going to set the future direction for the currency exchange rate.

Economic Calendar



On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Preliminary quarterly GDP is expected to impact the financial markets through the value of the US Dollar.

On Thursday, the publication of the US Core PCE Price Index at 13:30 GMT is most likely going to cause a USD move, as the US monetary policymakers watch this indicator.

GBP/USD short-term view

The ongoing decline could find support in the combination of the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.2663 and the approaching 50-hour simple moving average. Below these levels, note the 100-hour SMA and the 1.2600 level that has acted as support since late Thursday. Further below, it is highly likely that the GBP/USD would respect the cluster of technical levels near 1.2550, which consists of a support and resistance zone, the weekly simple pivot point and the 200-hour simple moving average.

However, in the case of a surge of the Pound against the US Dollar, the rate would have to break the weekly R2 at 1.2723. Higher above, the surge could be slowed down by the 1.2750 and 1.2800 levels, before the August high and weekly R2 come into play at 1.2819/1.2832.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the GBP/USD has broken the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average. There is no technical resistance on the daily candle chart, except the prior high and low levels of August and September that could impact the rate.

Meanwhile, it was previously observed that as the rate ignored the moving average, but it had started to respect the 1.2300/1.2450 range as support.

Daily chart


Traders are short on GBP/USD

On Monday, open GBP/USD positions by Swiss Foreign Exchange traders were 60% short.

Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100 pip range around the rate were 54% to buy.

On Tuesday, open positons were 60% short and orders were 59% to buy.

By mid-Wednesday, the traders were 63% short and pending orders were 64% to sell. Traders clearly expected a drop of the rate.

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