At mid-day on Friday, the currency exchange rate was located just above the 1.2120 mark. In the near term future, the SMAs could push the pair through the support level.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week will end with the publication of the US Retail Sales and US Core Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT. In November and December, these data sets caused an increase of volatility above the average.
Next week, the top event for the EUR/USD is set to occur. On Thursday, at 12:45 GMT the ECB Main Refinancing Rate is scheduled to be published. In addition, at the same time the Monetary Policy Statement is set to be published.
However, note that the biggest EUR moves are expected to occur after the 13:30 ECB press conference. Usually, the journalist question part is the one, which reveals new information that impacts the markets.
Meanwhile, a minor reaction could occur on all USD pairs due to the US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT.
On Friday, starting from 08:15 GMT the Markit Purchasing Managers Indices are set to be released for France, Germany and afterwards the Eurozone.
On the same day, at 14:45 GMT, the US PMIs will be published. The US publication has caused EUR/USD moves from 7.8 to 26.4 pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
It is likely that some downside potential could prevail in the market due to the resistance formed by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, as well the weekly S1 near 1.2160. Note that the rate could face the support level—the weekly S2 at 1.2099.If the 1.2120 support level holds, the currency pair could bounce off and re-test the SMAs resistance. Otherwise, the pair could continue to trade downwards in the short term.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, it can be observed that the 1.2140 level provided the rate with support on December 20.
Meanwhile, note that the closest by technical support on the daily candle chart is the 55-day SMA and a 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2000.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are slightly short
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bearish, as 54% of open position volume was in short positions.
During Thursday's trading hours, the sentiment was 55% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 72% to buy the pair.