- 61% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY the Sterling
- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish (-1%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: British Construction PMI, MPC Member Tenreyro to speak
GBP/USD is expected to reverse to the downside near the psychological 1.34 mark.
The Pound strengthened against the Greenback, following the UK Manufacturing PMI data release on Friday. The GBP/USD currency pair gained 11 pips, or 0.09%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.3294 area.
The Markit released Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data that came out better-than-expected of 54.4, compared to the 53.9 in the previous period.
"At first glance, the mild acceleration in the rate of output growth and rise in the headline PMI would appear positive," Rob Dobson, a Markit director, said. "However, scratch beneath the surface and the rebound in the PMI from April's 17-month low is far from convincing."
UK Construction PMI at 0830GMT
The only fundamental event that traders should take into account in this session is the British Construction PMI at 0830GMT. Analysts expect a slight decline month-on-month from 52.5 to 52.0 in May.
GBP/USD shows potential until 1.3450
Bulls prevailed on Friday, thus pushing the GBP/USD exchange rate past the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the prevailing five-week channel down. The pair reversing from the 1.3260 level early on Friday allowed to draw a new short-term ascending channel whose upper boundary was tested early today.Some slight upside potential is still apparent in the market. Thus, it is expected that the pair tests the combined resistance of the weekly R1, the monthly PP and the 100-period (4H) SMA near 1.3420. Bullish gains should not exceed the 1.3450 level. Conversely, the strong support cluster formed by the breached hourly SMAs and the channel near 1.3310 is likely to remain intact.
In general, the following days should still show some appreciation that could change to the opposite direction mid-week.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has plunged 7.28% against the US Dollar since mid-April. Despite lingering near the 200-day SMA for a couple of days, downside risks prevailed and pushed the rate as low as the 1.3245 last week.
As apparent on the chart, the Pound has started to recover from its six-month low. This appreciation is expected to continue during the following two weeks, as well. The nearest significant resistance is the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day SMA near 1.36.
Daily Chart
The bullish SWFX market sentiment is strongly bullish with 63% of open positions being long today (-1%). Likewise, 52% of pending orders are to buy the Pound.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is bullish, as 70% of them are holding long positions (+3%). Saxo Bank clients are likewise bullish with 59% long positions (-4%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility