EUR/USD slips below 200-hour SMA

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
  • 50% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
  • 64% of pending commands are set to sell the Euro
  • Upcoming Events: Empty Day

In result of the yesterday's trading day the pair made a breakout from the one-month long ascending channel. From daily perspective, such sell-off most probably shows dissolution of a medium scale rising wedge formation.

The US employment growth weakened significantly in December due to a decrease in retail jobs, while a surge in monthly pay gains indicated the labour market strength, which could enable the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in Spring. The Labour Department stated that the non-farm payrolls increased 148K in the reported month, following an upwardly revised 252K in November. Job growth is anticipated to moderate as the labour market remains close to full employment, though with some chances to get a boost from $1.5T tax cuts package.

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Empty day



There are no fundamental events planned for today that could cause notable volatility in the markets.

Read More: Fundamental Analysis


EUR/USD crosses 200-hour SMA

Contrary to expectations, the lower trend-line of a one-month long ascending channel did not managed to stop the currency rate from falling, even though it was additionally backed up by the weekly S1 and the 200-hour SMA. Basically, yesterday's downfall illustrates the breakout from a larger rising wedge formation, which can be more clearly seen on daily chart. As the pair has already crossed key technical barriers, the plunge is expected to continue. In support of this assumption, the majority of pending orders both in 50- and 100-pip ranges are set to sell. In that case, the closest support levels most probably will be located near the weekly S2 at 1.1953 and the monthly PP at 1.1917.

Hourly Chart


It appears that the currency rate has finally broken from the rising wedge formation. The drop was triggered by inability to climb above the two-year maximum located at the 1.2093. Accordingly, the first main target for the rate is expected to be the monthly PP at the 1.1917 mark.

Daily Chart

Read More: Fundamental Analysis



Market sentiment is bearish

In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment has not changed, as 60% of open positions are short.

In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 65% bearish and the Dollar is 57% bullish.

Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 65% (-3%) of open positions are short. SAXO Bank clients are likewise bearish on the pair with 60% (-3%) short positions.


Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility

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