- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 56.60% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: EU Minimum Bid Rate, US Unemployment Claims and Crude Oil Inventories
During the whole previous trading day the currency pair was expectedly moving along the moving averages in minor ascending channel. An announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate should substantially shake the pair. From daily and hourly technical perspective, the Euro is expected notably advance against the US Dollar. The surge is likely to be even more supported by the subsequent Draghi press conference.
The report showing that the US factory orders marked the buggiest drop in almost three years in July contributed to the jump in EUR/USD. The Euro accelerated gains against the Greenback, edging 20 base points higher to the 1.1908 mark.
The Commerce Department stated that orders for US-made goods tumbled 3.3% in July, as the demand for transportation equipment slumped in the same period. However, capital goods orders were stronger than the prior report showed, suggesting a solid business spending in the early Q3. Moreover, an increase in production could be fuelled by expected rise in demand for motor vehicles, as residents in storm-battered Texas aim to replace damaged cars.
European monetary policy in focus
Today is one of the most awaited days in the European continent, as the ECB is expected to give update on the Minimum Bid Rate. However, this time experts once again do not see any signs that it will be increased. But regardless of the eventual decision, the pair is still expected to be substantially shaken by this fundamental event. And even more this volatility can appear during the ECB President Mario Draghi press conference.
EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid Rate
As it was expected, a pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs neutralized any further attempts of the currency pair to slip to the bottom. The exchange rate even managed to from a junior ascending channel and bypass the weekly PP at 1.1918, fluctuating within it.
Today will be the next day for the Euro due to announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate and the subsequent ECB press conference. Usually, this event leads to very strong traders' reaction on it. In this context, the pair is expected to make a substantial advance today. Given a reaction to Draghi speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium two weeks ago, the Euro should appreciate today as well. The same direction is also seen from hourly and daily chart perspectives.
Hourly Chart
From a daily perspective, the situation remains approximately the same as yesterday. Namely, that the currency pair is moving at the intersection of the bottom trend-line of a senior ascending channel and junior ascending channel. Today the pair has a good chance to jump above the weekly R1 at 1.2013 and thus continue to advance in a dominant formation.
Daily Chart
Traders still bearish on the pair
The SWFX market sentiment hasn't increase since yesterday and now remains 57% bearish. In the meantime, the outlook for the Euro is 60% bearish, while for the Dollar 56.60% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 60.50% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 64% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility