- SWFX traders remain bearish with 53% of open positions being short
- 61% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price opened the day's trading at 1,245.67
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims
The bullion continues to move higher on Thursday, as the yellow metal's price reached for the 1,255 mark. This once more confirms the hypothesis that the reversal might have begun, and a new medium term pattern is likely going to reveal itself in the near future.
US oil inventories fell for the second consecutive time last week, official data showed on Wednesday. As reported by the Energy Information Administration, the number of barrels of crude oil dropped 2.5M in the week ended June 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 1.7M barrels, while analysts predicted a much lower drop of 1.2M barrels. US crude oil production climbed to 9.35M barrels per day, 20K higher than in the prior week, the EIA reported.
US Unemployment Claims
As it is accustomed on a Thursday, the US weekly Unemployment Claims data is set to be released. The data set is capable of causing a medium impact on the strength of the US Dollar in the short term. However, in the recent months the response of the markets to the divergences from the average market forecast have been minor. The data will be released at 12:30 GMT, and it will be a part of the coverage of the Canadian Retail Sales data sets on the Dukascopy live webinar.
Gold trades above 1,250 mark
On Thursday morning the yellow metal traded above the monthly pivot point, which is located at the 1,253 mark. The bullion managed to surge during the early hours of June 22 due to the fundamental events in the US. Due to the fact that the commodity price was located above the notable level of significance, it can be expected that the surge of the metal's price will continue. The next level of resistance, that gold faces it the 200-hour SMA, which during the early hours of the day's trading was located at the 1,257.20 mark. However, it could be observed that the pivot point was not clearly left behind, as the yellow metal's price had fluctuated in limbo around it for six consecutive hours.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows clearly that a reversal is beginning. Moreover, since the monthly PP at 1,253 has been pierced, the range up to the 1,260 mark is free from any resistance. At that mark the 55-day SMA is located at, and it is providing resistance. Just above that level of significance is located the weekly PP at the 1,262.48 level.Daily Chart
SWFX traders contradict others
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 53% of open positions are short on Thursday. Meanwhile, 61% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders have once more increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 67.39% long on Thursday, compared to 63.29% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO have stopped the buying of the metal, as 60.13% of open positions are long. Previously 61.02% of the bank's traders were long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being above 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,310 in the second half of September. Generally, 38% of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, an astonishing 26% (-1%) are voting for tight range between the 1,300 and 1,350 levels.