The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy may be considered the primary indicator of overall market consensus regarding inflation expectations for the remainder of 2026.
According To CFTC, During June and July 2026, Money Manager net long positioning in gold recovered from its spring lows, rising from 24.29% in late April to a peak of 34.41% (112,179 contracts) on June 2, before stabilizing at approximately 32.56% (124,831 contracts) by late July.
Considering the previously mentioned increase in Money Managers' net commitment, a decisive return of bullish momentum could reinforce the inflation-hedge narrative during Q3–Q4. Under this scenario, the sub-3,950.00 price zone may be tested.
However, a repeat of the elevated asset volatility observed at the beginning of 2026 probability of occurrence is considered low.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
The daily XAU/USD chart shows Gold in a bearish-to-neutral compression phase around , holding slightly above major horizontal support near while trapped beneath a prominent downward resistance trendline. Although the MACD shows a subtle bullish recovery attempt with its MACD line staying above the signal line in negative territory and green histogram bars persisting, price action remains capped below lower highs at 4200.00.
A decisive daily breakout above the descending trendline near would clear the path for a retest of higher resistance levels around 4200.00, whereas a sustained breakdown beneath 3950.00 would invalidate the momentum recovery and open the door for a drop toward key support at 3800.00.
XAU/USD weekly charts review
The weekly XAU/USD chart shows Gold in a corrective consolidation phase near 4039.90, trading well below its downward-sloping 20-week SMA following a rejection from its 2026 highs near 5,600. Price is currently squeezed within a descending triangle formed by a downward resistance trendline and a key horizontal support floor near 3950.00-4000.00.Weekly Candle Chart