Economic Calendar
The US Consumer Price Index will impact the market this week. Everything else is noise or will have less impact. CPI data sets are scheduled to be published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Prior to the CPI, on Tuesday, at 12:30 GMT the United States Producer Price Index will be published. The data shows price level changes at the producer level. Usually, a price increase at this level results in a price hike at the consumer level. Namely, PPI grows before the CPI.
On Wednesday, together with the CPI data another data set will be published. The Retail Sales data is expected to provide additional insight into the situation in the United States. It could reveal that despite higher prices, people keep buying goods. On the other hand, the Retail Sales might show that the consumer has had enough and has reduced spending.
USD/JPY hourly chart analysis
If the 100-hour SMA provides additional support, the rate could push higher. A push higher would face the 156.50 level and the combination of the weekly R1 at 156.89 and the 157.00 mark.On the other hand, a decline below the SMAs and the 155.50 level could result in the pair declining to the 155.00 mark, which has additional support from the 200-hour simple moving average and the weekly simple pivot point at 154.83. Moreover, note the 154.50/154.70 range that has acted as both support and resistance.
Hourly Chart
USD/JPY daily chart's review
Quoting prior analysis: "The daily candle chart shows that the rate has broken the junior channel down pattern to the downside. Support is found in the 2022 high level and the 50-day simple moving average. Further below, we have marked levels that had an impact throughout the pair's surge in 2024. These levels are expected to act as support together with the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages.From a broader scale, the rate might continue downwards until the Bank of Japan sees the Japanese currency as strong enough. It could coincide that the momentum stops at a combination of a moving average and a prior notable level like the 150.00 mark."
It appears that the combination of the 50-day SMA and the 2022 high level was enough. The rate is recovering with low volatility by gaining more and more each day. In general, the market pressure is for the Yen to decline, despite what the Bank of Japan wants an how it intervenes.
Daily chart
On Monday, traders were long, as 57% of volume was in bullish positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders around the current rate were 66% to buy.