In regards to the near term future, the rate could gain support of the hourly simple moving averages and pass the mentioned resistance level.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Despite the week having high impact events on the calendar, Dukascopy Analytics do not expect notable macroeconomic data caused moves.
First of all, note that the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will not have a rate announcement and a statement. The Meeting Minutes on their own were excluded from the historical data analysis after for a half-year period it caused only four pip moves on the EUR/USD.
On Thursday, the weekly US Unemployment Claims are set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The event has caused minor moves throughout July, as the EUR/USD moved around ten pips during the announcement.
On Friday, watch out for the German PMI data at 07:30 GMT, as the EUR/USD rate could move more than ten pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On Monday morning, the rate remained below the 1.1865 mark, which provided resistance. The pair needed additional support to pass this level. Such support could be found in the 55-hour simple moving average.Namely, the rate was expected to be pushed up by the 55-hour SMA, pass the 1.1865 level and reach for the weekly R1 pivot point at the 1.1900 level.
On the other hand, the SMA could fail. In this case scenario, the rate would decline to the combined support of the weekly simple pivot point and 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages near 1.1800. In addition, if this level fails, there would be no support as low as 1.1750.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair has respected the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1707 level.
In the meantime, the rate is consolidating by trading sideways in the borders of a channel up pattern.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Short sentiment decreases
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 67% of all EUR/USD open position volume was in short positions.
On Monday, the sentiment decreased to 65%.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were set to buy in 61% of all cases.