EUR/USD signals decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Since the middle of Wednesday, the EUR/USD has traded near the 1.1080 level. At that level the weekly S1 pivot point is located at.

Meanwhile, note that the S1 had been pierced on Wednesday, indicating that the rate could decline.

The decline is most likely going to occur, as soon as the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages begin to move lower and push the rate down.

US Preliminary GDP on Thursday

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the US Preliminary GDP is scheduled to be published. The event has caused moves on EUR/USD charts from 6.4 to 11.9 pips since February.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

On the hourly candle chart watch the resistance of the simple moving averages. Namely, on the Dukascopy Analytics charts the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages are used.

In general, as the rate declines, the SMAs should in theory also decline. That way the technical resistance would follow the exchange rate.

In addition, the 55-hour SMA has crossed the other ones. In theory, a crossing of a shorter period SMA of a longer period one is either a sell or buy signal. In this case it signals a sell.

Despite the signals, watch out from fundamentals that might beat down the value of the USD, causing a surge that would break the SMAs. For example, the US President Donald Trump has been pressuring the Fed for an interest rate cut. If he makes any progress, the market would adjust.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, there is no additional support to the currency exchange rate. If the rate begins a decline, it could fall down to the combination of S2 and a lower trend line of a massive scale channel down pattern at 1.1015.

Daily chart


Sentiment remains unchanged

Since Wednesday, 62% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

Meanwhile, pending trade orders were still neutral, as 50% of orders in 100 pips range around the current rate were to sell and 50% were to buy.

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