On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD traded below the 1.1200 level. Although, the rate had reached to the 1.1230 level during Monday's trading.
In regards to the near term future, a squeeze is expected to occur, as the 200-hour simple moving average was approaching from below and is bound to provide support.
Economic calendar
During this week there are a couple of government macroeconomic data releases, which might cause sudden moves in the EUR/USD.
On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index is set to be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release has two numbers being published that are important. Namely, the CPI and Core CPI.
The CPI differs from the Core CPI by not having included food and energy prices. That is done to see the inflation of goods that are not a basic nesecity.
This event has caused EUR/USD adjustments since March ranging from 13.3 to 28.1 pips.
On Thursday, the US Retail Sales are expected to cause a move at 12:30 GMT. Note that this release also will consist of two numbers.
The Core Retail Sales do not include auto sales. People buy cars on debt, paying the same amount of money each month and continue to buy the needed transportation no matter what. The elimination of auto sales improves retail sales as a measure of economic growth.
The data release since April has caused moves from 9 to 24.3 base points.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
By looking at the hourly chart one can observe that the rate reached Monday's target of 1.1200 and reached above it by surging to the 1.1230 level, which held and caused a consolidation.The consolidation ended on Tuesday morning, as the rate retreated below the 1.1200 mark. Afterwards, the rate began to trade sideways between the support of the weekly pivot point at 1.1186 and the resistance levels at 1.1200.
In general, the rate was expected to trade sideways until the support of the 200-hour simple moving average approaches and provides the needed support to once more surge above 1.1200.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart last week the rate had reached the combined resistance of the weekly R2 and the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages near 1.1230. By doing this the EUR/USD has removed some of the oversold pressure.
In addition, the daily simple moving averages are acting as a technical resistance. It explains, why the rate failed to pass the 1.1230 level despite making already four attempts.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Swiss traders short EUR/USD
On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 74% of open EUR/USD position volume was in short positions.
By the middle of Tuesday, the sentiment had decreased to 73%.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in 100-pip range around the pair were bearish, as 55% of all orders were set to sell and 45% were to buy.